## 2025 Copper Market Trend Analysis: International Copper Price Movements Driven by the Green Energy Wave

Copper is known as the "barometer" of the economy, with price fluctuations often reflecting the health of the global economy. As the green energy revolution and electric vehicle adoption accelerate, copper demand is entering a new growth cycle. For investors looking to seize this opportunity, understanding the drivers behind international copper price trends, grasping the forecasts of major institutions, and knowing the available trading channels can help them enter the market with greater confidence.

## Short-term Copper Price Trends: Upward Movement Amid Fluctuations

In the second quarter of 2025, copper prices are generally trending upward, but short- to medium-term fluctuations are inevitable. Predictions from major investment banks show divergence:

Citibank forecasts an average copper price of about $9,000 per ton in Q2, adjusting to $8,800 within three months. The main reasons for the increase include adjustments in US trade policies, frequent low-level stockpiling in China, and tight scrap copper inventories, which have significantly slowed the pace of decline.

Goldman Sachs is more optimistic, estimating copper prices could reach $9,600 in the next three months, break through $10,000 in six months, and hit $10,700 within a year. Their core logic is that import tariffs can prevent excess inventories, and from late Q2 onwards, digesting 30-40 thousand tons of inventory monthly provides strong support for prices.

The US Section 232 investigation could at any time announce a 25% tariff on copper. The market has already pre-stocked in anticipation, changing arbitrage flows between London and New York, leading to more intense short-term volatility.

From a long-term perspective, the average electric vehicle requires about 83 kg of copper per unit. Coupled with the wave of wind power, solar energy, and infrastructure upgrades, structural demand for copper remains robust, providing a solid foundation for steady international copper price growth.

## Key Factors Driving Copper Prices

### Strong Supply and Demand Fundamentals

Electric vehicles, charging infrastructure, and renewable energy systems demand astonishing amounts of copper—about 4 million tons consumed in 2024, with an additional roughly 700,000 tons expected in 2025.

China’s infrastructure boom is a major driving force. New rounds of urban renewal, high-speed rail network expansion, 5G infrastructure deployment, and other projects require large quantities of copper wiring and tubing, directly boosting overall demand.

Codelco, the world's largest copper mine company, expects to increase production by 70,000 tons to around 1.4 million tons in 2025. However, this incremental supply is far from sufficient compared to surging demand. On the supply side, factors like protests over mining rights in Peru limit supply flexibility.

### Frequent Policy and Geopolitical Risks

US Section 232 investigation and tariff expectations cast a shadow over the market. Concerns about copper being subject to a 25% import tax before the end of the year have led to aggressive stockpiling—large quantities of copper are being shipped from London and Shanghai to the US, with port inventories piling up, while LME and SHFE inventories are decreasing.

China’s policies hold the overall situation. Any infrastructure or monetary easing measures can instantly trigger demand waves.

### Macroeconomic and Interest Rate Environment

In 2025, expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts are generally positive. If rate cuts materialize, metal commodities will benefit; conversely, if the Fed remains on hold or worries about inflation rebound, copper prices will face pressure.

The US dollar trend is inversely related to copper prices—weakening dollar is bullish for copper, strengthening dollar is bearish.

### Global Green Energy Policies Fuel Growth

The EU’s “Fit for 55” carbon reduction plan and the US Inflation Reduction Act continue to subsidize electric vehicles and charging infrastructure, continuously boosting copper demand.

## International Copper Price Forecasts: Diverging Views

As of April 2025, major investment banks have provided different forecasts for international copper prices:

**Citibank** expects an average of $9,000 per ton in Q2, adjusting to $8,800 within three months, mainly due to US tariff policy adjustments, China’s low-level stockpiling, and tight scrap copper inventories.

**Goldman Sachs** has lowered its full-year forecast to $10,100 per ton (from $15,000), but believes medium-term upside remains. Targets are $9,600 in March, $10,000 in six months, and $10,700 within a year.

**UBS** forecasts an average of $10,500 per ton in 2025, noting that supply may tighten over the next 6-12 months, with an expected annual supply gap exceeding 200,000 tons.

**JPMorgan Chase** predicts that by the end of Q3, the US will impose at least a 10% tariff on refined copper, possibly rising to 25%, with an annual copper price target of $10,400 per ton.

These divergent forecasts reflect differing interpretations of variables such as tariffs, Chinese demand, and supply-side factors.

## Major Risks Facing Copper Investment

**Policy Surprises**: Results from the Section 232 investigation, escalating US-China trade tensions, or China’s tightening of infrastructure could instantly alter spot supply and demand dynamics.

**Geopolitical Conflicts**: Political and social instability in Chile and Peru, delays in projects in the Democratic Republic of Congo, can at any time challenge supply stability.

**Economic Recession**: If a hard landing occurs globally, domestic demand and ESG infrastructure projects may pause, leading to significant price corrections.

**Technological Substitutes**: Although copper currently has no substitutes in EVs, wind power, and energy storage, breakthroughs in lithium batteries or carbon fiber could slow demand growth in the future.

## Three Main Ways to Invest in Copper

For investors interested in participating in the copper market, there are three main options:

**Copper Futures**: Suitable for experienced investors who can tolerate higher risks. Standard contracts are for 25,000 pounds (COMEX), with mini and micro contracts also available. Leverage via margin trading amplifies gains and risks. Contracts require physical delivery at expiry.

**Copper CFDs (Contracts for Difference)**: Suitable for investors seeking flexible trading without physical delivery. Can go long or short, responding to market movements, with leverage options that should be used cautiously. No expiry date, ideal for short-term trading.

**Copper ETFs and Stocks**: Suitable for long-term investors with lower risk tolerance. ETFs tracking copper prices or related indices, or directly investing in copper mining companies’ stocks, can be bought and sold freely on stock exchanges with high liquidity.

Compared to retail investors, professional traders often prefer futures for their ability to go long or short with leverage. However, futures have expiry dates, which can be challenging for beginners to manage; CFDs, with low minimum trading units, no expiry, and 24/5 trading, are more suitable for investors with smaller capital seeking flexible risk management.

## Conclusion: Approach Copper Market Opportunities with Caution and Optimism

As a key indicator of the global economy, copper demand and price fluctuations are closely linked to economic development. In the context of accelerating green energy, widespread EV adoption, and global infrastructure upgrades, the long-term demand for copper is indeed promising.

However, investors should also recognize the complex variables currently facing the copper market—tariff policies, geopolitical conflicts, macroeconomic trends—that can cause sharp volatility in the short term. Caution is advised against chasing highs to avoid losses during market reversals. It is also recommended to keep an eye on oil prices, as crude oil is a significant production cost for copper; its fluctuations will directly impact supply-demand dynamics and international copper prices.

Whether choosing futures, CFDs, or ETFs, understanding your risk tolerance and developing a clear investment strategy are key to long-term profitability in the copper market.