Can gold still rise? 2025 Gold Price Forecast and Investment Decision Guide

What kind of market is gold brewing?

By the end of 2024, the gold market has become the most watched focus for investors. Although there was a correction after breaking through $4,400 in October to hit a record high, market enthusiasm remains strong. Many investors are asking: Will this rally continue? What is the basis for gold price forecasts? Is it still worth entering now?

To answer these questions, we first need to understand the logic behind the big surge in gold prices.

The three core forces driving gold prices higher

① Hedging demand driven by tariff policies

The market uncertainty brought by new policies in 2025 has directly increased the attractiveness of gold. Historical experience shows that during periods of policy uncertainty, gold usually experiences a short-term rise of 5-10%. As market concerns increase, the value of gold as a “safe asset” becomes more prominent.

② Expectations of declining interest rates

The Federal Reserve’s rate cut policies have a profound impact on gold trends. The core logic is simple—the lower the real interest rates, the more attractive gold becomes. Because the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases accordingly. According to CME interest rate tools data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the December meeting is as high as 84.7%.

Monitoring changes in the Fed’s rate cut expectations allows almost real-time tracking of gold price movements.

③ Continued gold purchases by global central banks

According to the World Gold Council report, in Q3 2025, global central banks net purchased 220 tons of gold, a 28% increase quarter-over-quarter. In the first nine months, total gold purchases reached about 634 tons, far above the historical average. Even more noteworthy, 76% of surveyed central banks expect to significantly increase their gold reserves over the next five years while reducing dollar reserves.

This reflects a subtle shift in global trust in the US dollar, reinforcing gold’s position as the “ultimate reserve asset.”

Other factors amplifying the trend

Global debt crisis and economic slowdown

By 2025, global debt totals $307 trillion. High debt levels limit countries’ flexibility in interest rate policies, leading to accommodative monetary policies that further suppress real interest rates, indirectly boosting gold’s value.

Weakening US dollar trend

When confidence in the dollar declines, gold priced in USD benefits, attracting large capital inflows.

Geopolitical risks

Ongoing instability factors such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East tensions strengthen demand for safe-haven assets.

Media effects and sentiment-driven momentum

Continuous media coverage and social media dissemination accelerate short-term capital inflows, creating a self-reinforcing surge.

How do institutions view the 2025 gold price forecast?

Despite recent volatility, mainstream financial institutions remain optimistic:

• JPMorgan: Views the correction as a “healthy adjustment,” raising its Q4 2026 gold target to $5,055/oz
• Goldman Sachs: Reaffirms its end-2026 target at $4,900/oz
• Bank of America: Has raised its 2026 target to $5,000/oz, with strategists more aggressively expecting a breakthrough to $6,000 next year

Domestic jewelry brands (Chow Tai Fook, Luk Fook, etc.)’s reference prices for pure gold jewelry remain stable above 1,100 RMB/gram, indicating market confidence remains intact.

Is the logic behind gold price forecasts valid?

Historical data suggests yes. Gold prices from 2024-2025 are approaching the highest in nearly 30 years, surpassing 2007 (31%) and 2010 (29%).

The medium- to long-term factors supporting gold—low interest rates, central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and a relatively weaker dollar—are still unfolding, making optimistic gold price forecasts well-founded.

However, the key point is: short-term volatility risks still exist, especially around US economic data releases and Federal Reserve meetings.

Should retail investors enter now?

Advice for short-term traders:

Volatile markets are precisely the golden opportunity for short-term operations. Liquidity is ample, price swings are clear, especially during sharp surges or drops, making bullish and bearish forces easy to observe. But this requires practical experience and strong psychological resilience.

Advice for novice investors:

Start with small capital to test the waters—absolutely avoid blindly increasing positions. Gold’s average annual volatility is 19.4%, higher than the S&P 500’s 14.7%. Once your mindset collapses, losses can be significant. It’s recommended to use economic calendars to track US data, aiding trading decisions.

Advice for long-term allocators:

Physical gold is suitable for long-term preservation of value, but be prepared for intense fluctuations. Gold cycles are long; within ten years, prices could double or be halved. Also, watch out for transaction costs (usually 5%-20%), and avoid putting all your assets into gold.

Advice for maximizing returns:

You can hold long-term positions and use short-term volatility for swing trading, especially around US market data releases. This requires experience and risk management skills.

Final reminder

Gold is not a “sure profit, no loss” choice. Although the overall outlook for 2025 is optimistic, diversified investment portfolios are always wise. Don’t put all your eggs in one basket—diversification is more reliable than chasing maximum gains.

The value of gold lies in “insurance” rather than “skyrocketing / surge” profits. Clarify this positioning, and your investment decisions will become much more rational.