[Trading Post｜$MERL]

To conclude:
I'm calling for a short position, and it's the more aggressive kind.

The price repeatedly tests 0.48–0.50, but each time with increased volume and dense upper shadows, indicating a typical distribution structure during a rally.
On the 4H chart, long upper shadows appear consecutively, showing this range has become a clear active selling zone.

The technical picture is very straightforward:

RSI (4H): Bearish divergence at high levels, momentum clearly weakening

MACD (4H): Dead cross near the zero line, rebound lacks sustainability

EMA: Price repeatedly fake-breaks short-term moving averages but never stabilizes

Against the backdrop of BTC and ETH simultaneously retracing and market risk appetite declining,
$MERL this **“only rebounds, no breakout”** pattern is inherently a breeding ground for bears.

📉 My trading plan is as follows:

Entry zone: 0.47 – 0.49, try shorting in batches

Stop-loss: above 0.52 (if it stabilizes there, admit mistake)

First take profit: 0.42

Second take profit: around 0.38 (previous low + liquidity zone)

The logic is simple:
A rebound = providing liquidity to shorts, not a trend reversal.

Adding to the unlocking expectations starting mid-December, even if it doesn’t crash immediately, it’s enough to suppress bullish sentiment.
Short-term breakout trades have extremely low risk-reward ratios;
Shorting along the structure offers a cleaner risk-reward profile.

But this doesn’t mean I’m bearish on $MERL.
I’m willing to call it short now because I want it to complete the necessary correction.

Only after clearing out the floating supply and waiting for the right timing,
will it be worth truly turning bullish and taking heavy positions again.

In this phase, I stand on the side of the bears;
In the next phase, I wouldn’t rule out re-entering long positions.

Trading is phase-based,
$MERL ’s story is still ahead.