A recent data release has caused quite a stir in the financial circle. US Q1 GDP growth rate was only 0.5% year-over-year, well below the expected 1.2%. Such data put significant pressure on traditional financial markets: stock indices plunged 2%, bond yields fell to their lowest point this year, and even "safe-haven assets" like gold were not immune, instead being dragged down.

But an interesting phenomenon occurred. While traditional assets collectively declined, the cryptocurrency market showed the exact opposite trend. Bitcoin surged past the $48,000 mark, and Ethereum remained firmly above $2,500. This "ice and fire" phenomenon indeed challenged many people's understanding of the market.

Why does such a divergence occur? The key lies in the differing interpretations of the recession risk among market participants.

From the perspective of traditional financial investors, slowing GDP growth suggests the economy may enter a downturn. This expectation is directly reflected in their actions: they sell stocks and bonds, holding cash and waiting. Corporate profits are pressured, consumer demand wanes, and the entire chain tightens. This is classic risk-avoidance logic.

However, crypto market participants think differently. In their view, slowing economic growth often accompanies policy adjustments—central banks may consider cutting interest rates or releasing liquidity to stabilize growth. Historically, whenever this happens, excess liquidity tends to seek new asset allocation directions. As a non-mainstream asset class, cryptocurrencies can benefit from this.

This does not mean that the crypto market is completely unaffected by macro factors, but rather that different investor groups interpret the same signals with a time lag and differing expectations. Traditional markets react more directly and pessimistically, while crypto markets look for opportunities following policy expectation shifts. Both logics are valid; they just focus on different points and timeframes.