To achieve stable returns in prediction markets, there are actually multiple strategies.
**Quick Bottom-Fishing** is the most straightforward and aggressive approach—target markets with high probabilities that are about to settle, and jump in to catch the last train. This method has low barriers to entry but tests your ability to select the right markets.
Order placement strategies differ. Some prediction market platforms specifically incentivize market makers, offering around 4% annualized returns for placing orders. This approach suits patient traders who prefer not to operate frequently, trading time for gains.
There's also an easily overlooked but very interesting arbitrage opportunity—monitor markets where the sum of probabilities is less than 1. This is a mathematical arbitrage: buy both YES and NO options simultaneously and wait for settlement. Since the total probability is less than 1, you profit regardless of which side wins. It’s somewhat like locking in a guaranteed profit.
Cross-platform hedging is an advanced tactic. Find the same event across different prediction platforms and perform arbitrage or hedging based on probability differences. It requires monitoring multiple platforms simultaneously, but once set up, the returns can be quite good.
Which strategy are you mainly using now? Or do you have any combined approaches?
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GmGnSleeper
· 19h ago
The probability and the arbitrage that is less than 1 are really amazing, it feels like free money.
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ChainComedian
· 19h ago
I like the probability and less than 1 approach the most, it feels just like exploiting system vulnerabilities for free.
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ZKProofEnthusiast
· 20h ago
The strategy of probability and arbitrage less than 1 is brilliant; it feels like exploiting a loophole in the system for free.
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ImpermanentPhobia
· 20h ago
The 4% annualized order placement sounds good, but you have to endure the boredom.
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SatoshiSherpa
· 20h ago
I like arbitrage with probabilities less than 1 the most, it's steady money, but the platform needs to be reliable.
To achieve stable returns in prediction markets, there are actually multiple strategies.
**Quick Bottom-Fishing** is the most straightforward and aggressive approach—target markets with high probabilities that are about to settle, and jump in to catch the last train. This method has low barriers to entry but tests your ability to select the right markets.
Order placement strategies differ. Some prediction market platforms specifically incentivize market makers, offering around 4% annualized returns for placing orders. This approach suits patient traders who prefer not to operate frequently, trading time for gains.
There's also an easily overlooked but very interesting arbitrage opportunity—monitor markets where the sum of probabilities is less than 1. This is a mathematical arbitrage: buy both YES and NO options simultaneously and wait for settlement. Since the total probability is less than 1, you profit regardless of which side wins. It’s somewhat like locking in a guaranteed profit.
Cross-platform hedging is an advanced tactic. Find the same event across different prediction platforms and perform arbitrage or hedging based on probability differences. It requires monitoring multiple platforms simultaneously, but once set up, the returns can be quite good.
Which strategy are you mainly using now? Or do you have any combined approaches?