When will the next crypto bull market begin? An in-depth analysis of Bitcoin cycle patterns

Since its inception in 2009, Bitcoin has experienced multiple remarkable bull cycles. From a 730% increase in 2013 to a 1900% surge in 2017, and then reaching a new all-time high in 2021, each bull market has attracted market attention. Now entering 2024-25, Bitcoin has once again reached a new high of $88.87K, prompting many investors to ask: Where is the starting point of the next crypto bull market?

What are the core drivers of Bitcoin’s bull markets?

Bitcoin’s price cycles are not random but driven by several key factors.

The Magic of the Halving Event

The Bitcoin halving, occurring every four years, is the most critical technical factor. It reduces miners’ rewards by 50%, directly decreasing the supply of new coins. Historical data shows: after the 2012 halving, prices increased by 5200%; after the 2016 halving, by 315%; and after the 2020 halving, by 230%. The fourth halving in April 2024 reaffirmed this pattern—subsequently, Bitcoin soared from $40,000 to $88.87K, a 132% increase.

Institutional Capital Influx

Unlike early retail-driven markets, the current bull run is backed by large-scale institutional capital inflows. After the approval of the US spot Bitcoin ETF in January 2024, over $2.8 billion has flowed in within just 11 months (compared to nearly 20 years for gold ETFs to reach this scale). BlackRock’s IBIT ETF holds over 467,000 BTC, and publicly listed companies like MicroStrategy have significantly increased their holdings in 2024.

Policy Shifts

The proposed “Bitcoin Act of 2024” by US senators suggests the Treasury purchase 1 million BTC over five years as strategic reserves. Although not yet passed, this proposal has already shifted market expectations. Additionally, countries like El Salvador and Bhutan have incorporated Bitcoin into their national reserves. These signals indicate Bitcoin is gradually shifting from a “speculative asset” to a “strategic asset.”

Five key indicators to identify bull market signals

1. Abnormal on-chain data changes

When Bitcoin is about to start a new rally, on-chain signals often appear first:

• Exchange balances decline (investors start self-custody)
• Large inflows of stablecoins into exchanges (preparing for new entry)
• Increase in active wallets (rising participation)

Data from 2024 shows exchange Bitcoin balances dropping to historic lows, while stablecoin inflows have surged over 300% in less than two months—indicating large-scale capital preparing to build positions.

2. Technical confirmation

Indicators like RSI, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages are traditional technical tools. When Bitcoin’s RSI breaks above 70, it often signals strong upward momentum. In November 2024, Bitcoin RSI briefly hit 75, and the price broke through key moving average resistance. While lagging, such signals are important for confirming trend changes.

3. Market sentiment index

The Fear & Greed Index shifting from extreme fear to neutral or greed often signals the start of a bull market. When the index rapidly rises from 20-30 to 50-70, market psychology has shifted significantly.

4. Institutional participation

Market direction can be gauged by fund flows into institutional investment products. Holdings and capital flows in Bitcoin futures and spot ETFs are direct indicators of institutional sentiment.

5. Macroeconomic environment

Federal Reserve policies, global inflation expectations, geopolitical risks—all macro factors—affect investor demand for Bitcoin as a “store of value.” The rising expectation of Fed rate cuts in the second half of 2024 creates a favorable macro environment for Bitcoin.

Three classic cases of past bull markets

2013: Early euphoria (730% increase)

From $145 to $1,200, driven by three factors: the Cyprus bank crisis sparking safe-haven demand, widespread media coverage, and Bitcoin’s inherent scarcity as an emerging asset. But then Mt. Gox was hacked, and Bitcoin fell below $300 in 2014. This taught the importance of exchange security.

2017: Retail era (1900% increase)

From $1,000 to $20,000, driven by the ICO boom and retail traders’ participation. However, lacking regulatory oversight, Bitcoin dropped over 80% in early 2018, taking nearly three years to recover. This cycle highlighted the risks of retail-driven markets—highly emotional and FOMO-driven.

2020-2021: Institutional awakening (700% increase)

From $8,000 to $64,000, fueled by strategic investments from MicroStrategy, Tesla, and institutional players like insurance companies. Although a correction occurred in May 2021, the market foundation was more solid. Unlike retail markets, institution-led cycles tend to be more sustainable.

The uniqueness of the 2024-25 cycle

Institutional approval of ETFs as a systemic breakthrough

The approval of the US spot Bitcoin ETF in January 2024 marked a watershed moment. It opened traditional financial channels, allowing institutions like pension funds and insurance companies, which cannot hold Bitcoin directly, to participate. To date, Bitcoin ETFs have become the most capital-attracting new fund products globally.

Halving synchronized with institutional inflows

The April 2024 halving coincided with massive institutional capital inflows, creating a perfect timing window. Supply tightening and demand expansion occurred simultaneously—rare in Bitcoin history.

Overlay of political cycles

The pro-crypto stance of the Trump administration further improved policy expectations. While policy changes may carry uncertainties, the current political climate is positive for Bitcoin.

When will the next Bitcoin bull market start? Key judgments

Based on halving cycles, institutional involvement, and policy trends, the next significant upward phase may occur within these timeframes:

Short-term (3-6 months): Depends on Fed policies, corporate earnings reports, and changes in Bitcoin holdings, as well as any new geopolitical events boosting safe-haven demand. Bitcoin near $88.87K may face consolidation, but the $100K psychological level is likely to be broken before year-end.

Medium-term (6-12 months): If the Bitcoin Act advances in Congress or more central banks announce Bitcoin reserve plans, these will serve as new catalysts. Continued stablecoin inflows also indicate fresh capital readiness.

Long-term (1-2 years): Expectations for the next halving in 2028 will start to pre-activate investments. Historically, investors tend to begin positioning 12-18 months before halving.

Three preparations for the next bull market

1. Tactical: Dollar-cost averaging rather than lump-sum

History shows each bull market experiences corrections. Avoid trying to perfectly time the market; instead, accumulate gradually at key levels like $85K-$95K, $75K-$80K. This reduces costs and cushions short-term volatility.

2. Psychological: Distinguish long-term and short-term

Institutional capital has changed market structure, but volatility remains. 30%-50% corrections are common in bull markets. If your investment horizon is 3-5 years, such dips are not a concern.

3. Knowledge: Understand Bitcoin’s evolving role

Bitcoin is shifting from “digital gold” to a “strategic asset.” Grasping this transition helps navigate future policy changes and market expectations. Also, monitor technological upgrades like OP_CAT to see if they expand Bitcoin’s use cases, which will influence demand long-term.

Final advice

Bitcoin’s cycles are driven by technical features (supply reduction), market maturity, and policy improvements. While we cannot precisely predict the exact timing of the next bull run, observing on-chain data, institutional trends, and macro factors allows us to identify key turning points.

Most importantly, don’t be distracted by short-term price swings. Bitcoin moving from $88.87K to $120K-150K may take a year or 18 months—but the certainty of this direction is more valuable than any short-term ups and downs.

Prepare well, manage risks, and stay patient—this is the right approach for riding the next crypto bull market.