Bitcoin Bull Market Cycle Analysis: When Will the Next Rally Begin?

Since its inception in 2009, Bitcoin has experienced a series of aggressive upward waves every few years. From the first surge in 2013, the nationwide frenzy in 2017, the influx of institutions in 2020-2021, to breaking $90,000 in 2024, what underlying patterns are hidden behind these cyclical rises and falls? When will the next bull market arrive?

Why Bitcoin Always Shows Cyclical Price Surges

Bitcoin’s bull markets are not random. The driving factors are relatively stable—the halving events are the most critical catalysts.

Every four years, Bitcoin’s block rewards are halved, directly reducing new coin supply. Historical data shows:

• 2012 halving: +5200%
• 2016 halving: +315%
• 2020 halving: +230%
• April 2024 halving: reached a new high of $93,000 (as of that time)

As of December 2025, Bitcoin’s price is $87.78K, a correction from the all-time high of $126.08K, but still at a high level historically. The correlation between halving cycles and price cycles is very strong—this is not coincidence but an inevitable result of supply compression.

2024-2025: Turning Point in the Institutional Era

The biggest difference from the past three bull markets is the change in participant identity.

After the US SEC approved a spot Bitcoin ETF in January 2024, the game rules were rewritten. By the end of 2024:

• Total net inflow into Bitcoin ETFs reached $2.8 billion
• BlackRock’s IBIT fund held 467,000 BTC
• All US spot ETFs combined held over 1 million BTC

What does this mean? Bitcoin is no longer just a toy for geeks and retail investors but has become an official asset on pension funds, hedge funds, and corporate balance sheets. Companies like MicroStrategy and Tesla continued to increase their holdings in 2024, further reducing market liquidity.

Latest data shows there are 55.1 million Bitcoin addresses, but the distribution of coins is more concentrated than ever—whales and institutions hold an absolute majority. This trend of concentration often intensifies supply pressure during bull markets.

Historical Mirror: The Pattern of Four Bull Cycles

2013: from $145 to $1,200 (+730%)

This was Bitcoin’s first major breakout. The Cyprus banking crisis prompted investors to reconsider the “digital gold” concept. Media blitzes led retail investors to flood in. But Mt. Gox exchange was hacked (handling 70% of trading volume at the time), leading to a brutal bear market—BTC fell below $300, with a 75% loss.

Lesson: Bull market tops are often accompanied by infrastructure risks.

2017: from $1,000 to $20,000 (+1,900%)

The ICO craze fueled this rally. Some exchanges acted as catalysts, with daily trading volume soaring from $200 million at the start of the year to $15 billion by year-end. Retail investors followed the hype, and star projects raised billions.

But regulatory crackdown came—China banned ICOs and domestic exchanges, tightening globally. In 2018, BTC plunged to $3,200, an 84% drop.

Lesson: Regulatory uncertainty is the biggest killer of bull markets.

2020-2021: from $8,000 to $64,000 (+700%)

This time was different. Grayscale held millions of BTC, listed companies increased holdings openly, and PayPal announced support for crypto. The narrative shifted from “get-rich-quick gambling” to “inflation hedge.”

Mid-2021, prices retraced to $30,000 (-53%), but institutions kept buying. Ultimately, BTC broke through $69,000.

Lesson: Institutional participation changes the volatility cycle but does not eliminate risk.

2024-2025: The New Logic of the ETF Era

What does a spot ETF mean? It integrates Bitcoin into traditional investment portfolios. Retirement accounts, fund managers, insurance companies can directly allocate to Bitcoin without managing wallets themselves.

As a result, high-volatility assets like Bitcoin are now viewed as long-term holdings. This pushed prices higher in the short term (from $40K in 2024 to $93K), but also introduced new risks—when macro conditions change, these “passive” holders might collectively withdraw.

The current market’s uniqueness lies in the overlay of halving cycles and ETF inflows, but this combined effect is gradually weakening.

When Will the Next Bull Market Start? Key Signals to Watch

1. Persistent Supply Pressure

Next halving is expected around April 2028. But don’t wait that long—liquidity compression is crucial.

Currently, miners produce 600 new BTC daily, but net outflows on exchanges persist. This means the “available BTC” for purchase is decreasing. When demand slightly rebounds, prices will be pushed higher. From a technical perspective, if ETF inflows continue to grow, prices can be supported even without new catalysts.

2. Macro Policy Turning Points

Federal Reserve rate cuts, expectations of global easing, rising geopolitical risks—all are factors that can boost Bitcoin. Rumors at the end of 2024 suggest some country might include Bitcoin in its national reserves, though unconfirmed. Such expectations alone can lift prices.

3. Unmet Institutional Allocation Needs

According to traditional asset allocation logic, institutions typically allocate 2-5% of their portfolios to high-risk assets. Currently, most are below 1%. When this ratio approaches the average, it will trigger a wave of passive buying.

4. Technical Turning Points

Bitcoin’s current daily trading volume is about $928 million, with a peak price of $126.08K. A retracement to $87.78K means about 30% below the top. If prices break back above $100K, technical breakout signals will attract a wave of buy-in.

Market Outlook for 2025-2026

Based on halving cycles and historical patterns:

Short-term (next 3-6 months): Range-bound consolidation. Currently in a correction phase, with $85K-$95K as the normal trading band. Likely testing $100K again, but whether it can hold depends on macro factors.

Mid-term (6-18 months): Slow upward trend. Without black swan events (policy crackdowns, recession), Bitcoin is unlikely to crash. The “foundation” built by institutions will gradually take effect. Target: $110K-$130K.

Long-term (beyond 18 months): Focus on on-chain fundamentals. If developers push forward with OP_CAT upgrade (allowing more complex Bitcoin transactions), Bitcoin could expand into DeFi, increasing use cases and value narratives. News of government or corporate holdings will continue to impact market expectations.

How Should You Respond?

1. Establish a Clear Allocation Framework

   • Long-term holders (3+ years): consider gradual entry at $80K-$95K
   • Traders: watch for technical breakouts at $100K, $110K

2. Be Alert to Risk Signals

   • ETF outflows (no clear signs yet)
   • Regulatory policy shifts
   • Rising macro recession expectations

3. Monitor On-Chain Indicators

   • Exchange-held coins (currently decreasing, bullish)
   • Whale wallet movements
   • Stablecoin net inflows

4. Avoid FOMO and Chasing Highs

   • Every bull market top has trapped retail investors
   • Exercise caution above $120K

Conclusion

The question of “when will the next bull market come” has no precise answer, but the pattern is clear: As long as supply remains tight and demand exists, a bull market will reoccur.

2024 is the year for institutional entry, and 2025-2026 will see steady institutional allocation. Compared to the retail frenzy of 2017 and the FOMO of 2021, this cycle will be more rational, durable, and volatile.

A major breakout is likely at the end of this year or early next year. But remember—building positions at the bottom is always safer than chasing highs.