From the halving to ETFs: Unveiling the five major drivers behind the BTC bull market

Since its birth in 2009, Bitcoin has experienced multiple rounds of intense volatility, and every price surge is not just a coincidence. The recent breakthrough of BTC surpassing $93,000 in November 2024 is the result of multiple factors resonating together. However, according to the latest data, BTC’s current price has fallen back to $87.42K, which also reminds us of the importance of understanding bull run crypto meaning.

Halving Cycle: The Underlying Logic Behind BTC Price Rises

Every four years, Bitcoin undergoes a “halving event”—reducing miners’ rewards by 50%. The brilliance of this setup is that it artificially creates scarcity.

Historical data clearly illustrates the pattern:

• After the 2012 halving, BTC surged by 5,200%
• After the 2016 halving, the increase was 315%
• After the 2020 halving, the rise was 230%
• The fourth halving in April 2024 was followed by BTC rising from $40,000 at the start of the year to $93,000, a 132% increase

Why does halving trigger price increases? Supply suddenly decreases while demand remains steady or even increases—basic economics provides the answer. This is the core of bull run crypto meaning—the perfect storm of supply pressure and demand explosion.

Institutional Recognition: From Folk Assets to Mainstream Finance

In January 2024, the US SEC approved a spot Bitcoin ETF, marking a historic turning point. This is not just a financial product but an official endorsement of BTC’s legitimacy at the institutional level.

Data speaks:

• Three months after the ETF launched, net inflows exceeded $1 billion
• By November 2024, total inflows surpassed $2.8 billion, surpassing gold ETFs to become the most popular commodity ETF globally
• Institutions like MicroStrategy hold over 467,000 BTC through ETFs

What does this mean? Previously, only bold retail investors and tech believers dared to buy BTC. Now, pension funds, hedge funds, and insurance companies are also allocating. Institutional entry brings not short-term speculation but long-term optimism.

Policy Support: A New Trend in National Asset Allocation

El Salvador declared Bitcoin legal tender in 2021. Bhutan’s government, through its national investment company Druk Holding, accumulated 13,000 BTC, becoming one of the world’s largest government holders.

US Senator Cynthia Lummis proposed the “Bitcoin Act” in 2024, recommending the US Treasury acquire 1 million BTC over five years. Although the bill is still progressing, it signals that major countries are considering including Bitcoin in their strategic reserves.

When governments treat Bitcoin as “digital gold” for allocation, market sentiment shifts significantly. This directly pushes up BTC prices and is the most direct reflection of the “institutionalization” dimension in recent bull run crypto meaning.

Technical Upgrades: Breakthroughs and New Opportunities

One of Bitcoin’s long-standing criticisms has been slow transaction speeds. However, a potential game-changing code upgrade, OP_CAT, is under discussion.

If activated, OP_CAT could:

• Enable Layer 2 scaling solutions (like sidechains and aggregators), allowing thousands of transactions per second
• Open up DeFi applications, making Bitcoin more than just a “store of value”—it could participate in lending, derivatives, and complex operations
• Increase miners’ revenue sources, shifting from solely block rewards to transaction fees, which is crucial for offsetting future revenue declines from halving

Technological progress broadens Bitcoin’s application scenarios, attracting more types of investors.

Market Sentiment and Retail Enthusiasm

An often overlooked factor is popularity. In 2017, BTC surged from $1,000 to $20,000, with half of the momentum driven by retail investors’ FOMO (fear of missing out). The ICO boom, new exchanges, and growing mainstream discussion created a strong social consensus.

A similar scenario is replaying in 2024, but with differences:

• Not driven by small exchanges’ convenience but by traditional financial institutions entering
• Not driven by speculative emotions but by long-term allocation needs
• Not driven by media hype but by macroeconomic factors (high inflation, low interest rates, geopolitical risks)

When these five factors (halving, ETF, policy, technology, sentiment) align for an upward trend, a bull run is formed.

Current Challenges and Warning Signs

Although BTC rising from $40,000 to $93,000 looks spectacular, from the all-time high of $126.08K, the current $87.42K is actually a correction. This reminds us of several real risks:

Regulatory Uncertainty: Any policy shift in the US could trigger significant sell-offs. An unfriendly regulatory statement alone can shatter market confidence.

Macroeconomic Risks: If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates again, investors may shift from high-risk assets like Bitcoin to safer assets.

Environmental Controversy: Bitcoin mining’s energy consumption has been criticized, potentially leading ESG investors to sell.

Competitive Pressure: Progress in Layer 1 blockchains like Solana and Ethereum in terms of functionality and efficiency could divert some capital.

How to Judge the Next Bull Market

For traders and long-term holders, key indicators include:

1. On-chain Data: Watch the amount of Bitcoin leaving exchanges. If large holders reduce their exchange holdings, it often signals accumulation and is a bullish sign.

2. Technical Analysis: RSI (Relative Strength Index) above 70, price breaking above 50-day and 200-day moving averages—classic technical signals.

3. Macro Factors: Keep an eye on Federal Reserve policies, geopolitical events, and currency devaluations in emerging markets. These can increase demand for “safe-haven assets” (Bitcoin’s role).

4. Halving Schedule: The next halving is expected around 2028. Historical patterns suggest that expectations before halving and supply tightness afterward often trigger a new rally.

5. Policy Developments: Monitor the progress of the Bitcoin Act and whether other countries follow the US.

Investment Tips: How to Profit During a Bull Run Without Losing Money

First, clarify your role. If you’re a short-term trader, learn to read charts, set stop-losses, and control leverage. If you’re a long-term investor, consider dollar-cost averaging and adding during significant dips.

Diversify: Don’t put all your funds into Bitcoin. Allocate some to stablecoins, mainstream altcoins, and even traditional assets to balance risk.

Security First: Use reputable exchanges, enable two-factor authentication, and store significant assets in hardware wallets. Events like Mt. Gox in 2013 and recent exchange risks remind us that security always comes first.

Periodic Review: Regularly reassess your investment goals and risk tolerance. When the market overheats (RSI above 80 for long periods, media frenzy), stay rational and disciplined.

Learn and Communicate: Participate in industry forums, read in-depth analysis, and exchange ideas with other investors. Cognitive upgrades are often more important than just information.

Conclusion: A Bull Run Is Just Part of the Cycle

Bitcoin’s history is a cycle of bull runs and bear markets. $1,200 in 2013, $20,000 in 2017, $69,000 in 2021, and $93,000 in 2024—each astonishing, each followed by deep corrections.

What matters is that each cycle resets the composition of market participants. From tech geeks and believers in 2013, to retail and speculators in 2017, to institutions and governments in 2024, Bitcoin’s role continues to evolve. This means future bull runs won’t just be simple “from a few thousand to tens of thousands” but a process of finding a stable position within the entire financial system.

For those wanting to participate, the key is understanding the essence of bull run crypto meaning: supply shocks, demand explosions, institutional recognition, technological progress, and market sentiment working together. Mastering these dimensions will enable clearer judgment in the next cycle.

Stay alert, keep learning, and be patient—these are the fundamental rules for survival in the high-volatility crypto market.