Bitcoin Cycle Repetition: The Complete Evolution from Retail Frenzy to Institutional Deployment

Since its inception in 2009, Bitcoin has experienced several rounds of intense price volatility. From its first major surge in 2013 to the current consolidation at $87.12K, each bull market is driven by different forces. To understand the arrival of the next crypto bull market, we must first look at the truths behind these past cycles.

The Essence of Bull Markets: Scarce Supply vs Explosive Demand

Bitcoin bull markets are not simply about rising prices; they are a feast of supply and demand imbalance. The three most intense rallies in history all revolve around the same logic: when new capital enters the market and on-chain supply decreases, prices accelerate upward.

Data speaks: In 2013, BTC soared from $145 to $1,200 (+730%); in 2017, from $1,000 to $20,000 (+1,900%); in 2021, from $8,000 to $64,000 (+700%). It may seem the gains are shrinking, but this reflects increased market maturity—retail FOMO is gradually being replaced by institutional allocations.

2013: The Original Dream of Internet Money

The first major bull run was sudden and fervent. The Cyprus banking crisis provided a perfect stage for Bitcoin—when traditional financial systems fail, people start seeking alternatives.

That year, Bitcoin entered the public eye for the first time. Media coverage ignited tech enthusiasts’ enthusiasm, pushing prices past $1,200 before year’s end. But behind this frenzy, hidden dangers were already brewing—transaction infrastructure was extremely fragile. The famous Mt. Gox exchange was hacked in early 2014, leading to a drop of over 75%.

Lesson: Early bull markets rely heavily on media hype and FOMO, making them highly susceptible to black swan events.

2017: ICO Bubble and Retail Frenzy

Four years later, Bitcoin made a comeback. This time, it was no longer a secret among tech geeks but a nationwide investment craze. The ICO wave began, with thousands of new projects claiming to change the world.

From $1,000 to $20,000, the rally was the most explosive. 24-hour trading volume soared from $200M at the start of the year to $15B. Everyone around was talking about Bitcoin—taxi drivers, aunties, neighbors. It was a classic retail-driven bull market.

However, regulatory crackdowns followed. China halted ICOs and banned domestic exchanges; the US SEC expressed concerns. By the end of 2018, BTC fell back to $3,200, an 84% decline. This boom lasted less than a year.

Lesson: Retail-led bull markets tend to be short-lived because they lack fundamental support—driven mainly by emotion.

2020-2021: Institutional Accumulation and Narrative Upgrades

What truly changed the game was this cycle.

From $8,000 to $64,000, a 700% increase, seemingly similar to 2013, but with entirely different drivers. This time, institutional investors started taking Bitcoin seriously. Public companies like MicroStrategy, Tesla, Square incorporated Bitcoin into their asset allocations. Why? The massive liquidity injections from COVID-19 prompted them to seek hedges.

Bitcoin’s narrative evolved from “internet hacker’s toy” to “digital gold” and “inflation hedge.” This was a game-changer. Institutional holdings hit new highs, on-chain data showed increased large transfers, and Bitcoin balances on exchanges continued to decline—signs of institutions locking in positions.

2024-25: A New Starting Point for the ETF Era

The latest rally is particularly interesting because it marks Bitcoin’s transition from an “optional asset” to a “must-have asset.”

After the SEC approved a spot Bitcoin ETF in January 2024, institutional entry barriers instantly lowered. BlackRock’s IBIT fund alone holds 467,000 BTC. As of the latest data, the total assets under management (AUM) of spot BTC ETFs surpassed $28 billion, exceeding gold ETFs.

What does this mean? It means pension funds, insurance companies, university endowments—big players—can now hold Bitcoin as easily as buying SPY. The entry threshold dropped from a million dollars to just a few hundred dollars per share.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin completed its fourth halving in April, reducing miner rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Historically, each halving cycle has been followed by a price surge—simple reason: the new supply decreases by 50%, while demand continues to grow.

Current price at $87.12K, though below the all-time high of $126.08K, is still up over 130% from the start of the year’s $40K. This is a very healthy state—not a crazy surge, but steady growth.

Four Signals for the Next Bull Market Crypto

To catch the next bull, these signals are worth watching:

1. On-chain Indicators Reversal

• Exchange balances hitting new lows (institutions holding, not selling)
• Surge in stablecoin inflows (funds preparing to enter)
• Whale wallet activity picking up (big holders accumulating)

2. Policy Environment Turning Favorable Senators proposed the BITCOIN Act, suggesting the US Treasury buy 1 million BTC over five years as strategic reserves. This is not science fiction but a real legislative proposal. Once passed, the US government itself becomes the biggest buyer.

Central American country El Salvador has adopted Bitcoin as legal tender. Bhutan’s national investment firm has accumulated over 13,000 BTC. These government actions signal: Bitcoin is evolving from an “investment asset” to a “national asset.”

3. Technical Breakthroughs The activation of OP_CAT code has been debated for a long time. Once enabled, Bitcoin can support Layer-2 scaling solutions and DeFi applications, potentially increasing throughput by thousands of times. This would expand Bitcoin’s role from “digital gold” to “computing infrastructure.” When that happens, Bitcoin’s use cases and valuation logic will be fundamentally rewritten.

4. Growing Institutional Demand New ETF products keep emerging, and traditional finance’s acceptance of Bitcoin hits record highs. Every market correction attracts more pension funds to buy on dips. This creates a dynamic bottom support.

How to Position for the Next Bull Run

If you believe the next bull market crypto is imminent, here are practical tips:

Step 1: Confirm Your Risk Tolerance Bitcoin’s volatility means a 50% drop is normal. If a halving causes sleepless nights, consider reducing your investment proportion.

Step 2: Dollar-Cost Average Instead of Lump Sum Every bull market has multiple pullbacks. From $40K to $87K, there were likely dips to $70K. Don’t rush to chase the top; set up a DCA plan and let time average your costs.

Step 3: Secure Storage Is Fundamental Exchanges can fail (though much improved now), but hardware wallets will never betray you. If holding over a month, it’s worth buying a cold wallet.

Step 4: Watch Policy and On-chain Signals Federal Reserve rate hikes, new government attitudes, active addresses on the BTC network—these indicators often signal turning points.

Lessons from History

Reviewing the four major bull markets, a clear evolution emerges:

• 2013: Emotion-driven, infrastructure fragile
• 2017: Retail participation, high policy risk
• 2021: Institutional involvement, fundamental support
• 2024-25: Institutionalization, long-term capital influx

While each cycle’s features change, the underlying logic remains—scarcity meets new demand.

Currently, there are over 55 million addresses holding Bitcoin, and liquidity is sufficient to absorb institutional funds. With the halving cycle completed, policy environment improving, ETF scale expanding, the next drivers could come from—government reserves allocation or DeFi ecosystem explosion after OP_CAT activation.

Final Reminder

Bitcoin is never a “get-rich-quick” machine; it’s a long-term game of confidence. The current price of $87.12K is neither the end nor the peak—it’s just a snapshot in this cycle.

When will the next bull market arrive? No one can predict precisely. But considering halving cycles, institutional demand, and policy shifts, 2025-2026 looks like a promising window.

The key is to be prepared, not passively waiting. Accumulate knowledge during bear markets, stagger your entries during consolidations, and stay calm during bull runs. When the next big wave hits, you won’t be just watching others harvest—you’re ready to participate.