When will Bitcoin enter the next bullish cycle? Key signals and historical patterns analysis

Since its inception in 2009, Bitcoin has experienced multiple significant price cycles, each bringing different market stories. Currently, digital asset market participants are generally focused on a core question: When will the next Bitcoin uptrend cycle arrive? To answer this question, we need to analyze it from three dimensions: historical patterns, technical indicators, and market catalysts.

2024-25: A New Era Driven by Spot ETFs

Latest market data shows Bitcoin is currently priced at $87.12K, leaving some room below the all-time high of $126.08K. This price range itself conveys important information.

The year 2024 marks a fundamental shift in Bitcoin’s market structure. After the SEC approved a spot Bitcoin ETF in January, institutional funds flooded in. As of November 2024, these ETFs have absorbed over $450 million in net inflows, creating an unprecedented liquidity environment. Large asset managers like BlackRock hold over 467,000 BTC through the IBIT ETF, which itself signifies a historic turning point.

During the fourth halving event in April, Bitcoin’s block rewards were reduced again, a key mechanism driving supply scarcity. Historical data indicates that significant price increases often occur within 6-12 months after halving. This cycle, from early January’s approximately $40,000 to November’s $93,000, has risen by 132%.

Recognizing Technical Signals of an Uptrend Cycle

For participants seeking to seize Bitcoin market opportunities, mastering signal recognition is crucial.

Technical indicators: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) breaking above 70 typically signals strong buying momentum. During the 2024 uptrend, BTC’s RSI indeed touched this level at multiple stages. Additionally, the golden cross of the 50-day and 200-day moving averages often indicates the start of a new upward trend.

On-chain data reveals deeper market trends. When Bitcoin holdings on exchanges decline, it suggests accumulation rather than selling. Throughout 2024, institutional investors and high-net-worth individuals have continued increasing their holdings, with on-chain wallet activity remaining high. The rapid inflow of stablecoins onto trading platforms also signals new capital preparing to enter.

Macroeconomic context: Changes in policymakers’ attitudes toward digital assets are also important references. Recent discussions in the US political environment about Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset have increased, which usually boosts institutional investor confidence.

Evolution Logic of Past Uptrend Cycles

To understand the future, we must examine the past. Each major Bitcoin uptrend cycle has its unique drivers but also recognizable patterns.

Early 2013 rise: From $145 in May to $1,200 in December, a 730% increase. The driving forces during this period were early adopters and tech enthusiasts, coupled with a safe-haven demand triggered by the Cyprus banking crisis. However, a major exchange security incident in early 2014 broke this cycle, leading to a prolonged bear market.

2017 retail investor frenzy: From $1,000 in January to nearly $20,000 in December, a 1,900% increase. This cycle was driven by two forces: first, the token fundraising boom attracted many new participants; second, widespread media coverage created a self-reinforcing upward spiral. Daily trading volume grew from $200 million at the start of the year to $15 billion by year-end. However, aggressive global regulatory measures (especially bans on token fundraising in some countries) caused an 84% deep correction in 2018.

2020-2021 institutional rise: From $8,000 in January to $64,000 in April, a 700% increase. The qualitative change during this period was the large-scale participation of institutional investors—companies like MicroStrategy began to include Bitcoin as part of their balance sheet strategy. Over $10 billion flowed into institutions that year. Bitcoin’s narrative shifted from “technological anomaly” to “digital gold” and an inflation hedge.

New Variables for Future Uptrend Cycles

Looking ahead, several new factors are reshaping Bitcoin’s fundamentals.

Government reserves strategies: Several countries are exploring the possibility of including Bitcoin in national fiscal reserves. Bhutan, through its national investment agency, has accumulated over 13,000 BTC. If major economies adopt similar strategies, it will create a new demand source.

Network upgrades: Discussions about restoring certain programming functionalities are advancing within the community, potentially enabling Bitcoin to support more complex applications, expanding it from a pure store of value to an application platform. If successful, such innovations could open new market opportunities for Bitcoin.

Expansion of derivatives products: Following the spot ETF, further development of futures, options, and other derivatives will attract more institutional participants.

How Investors Can Prepare

In the face of Bitcoin’s cyclical nature, rational preparation strategies include several aspects.

First, study market cycle patterns. By analyzing the uptrend cycles of 2013, 2017, and 2021, one can identify common triggers and market signals. Second, develop a clear risk management plan. This includes understanding your risk tolerance, setting stop-loss levels, and deciding on investment time horizons. Third, choose reliable trading platforms. Platform security, liquidity, and user experience directly impact trading efficiency.

Secure storage is vital for long-term holders. Hardware wallets and cold storage solutions can effectively reduce hacking risks. Additionally, tax planning should not be overlooked, as different jurisdictions have varying tax treatments for crypto gains.

Finally, monitor key event calendars: halving cycles (expected 2028), significant regulatory developments, and macroeconomic policy changes could all trigger the next cycle.

When Will It Truly Arrive: A Timeframe Perspective

While precise prediction of Bitcoin’s next peak is challenging, historical patterns offer reference. Traditional models show that significant price pressure often occurs within 6-18 months after halving events. Given the April 2024 halving, 2025-2026 could be critical windows to observe the cycle’s development.

However, it must be acknowledged that the Bitcoin market has become more mature and complex. Cycles once driven by single factors have evolved into results of multiple factors working together. Increased institutional participation adds stability but may also smooth out extreme volatility.

The current price of $87.12K, although significantly higher than the $40K at the start of 2024, still falls short of some institutional analysts’ annual targets. This state itself indicates that the market is still digesting liquidity, and a breakthrough in the next phase will require new catalysts.

Summary: Opportunities and Risks Coexist

Bitcoin’s cyclical nature is its core characteristic. From early supply scarcity to institutional recognition, each stage shapes the market structure of this asset. The arrival of the next uptrend cycle is neither inevitable nor impossible—it depends on halving cycles, regulatory environments, macroeconomic conditions, and market participant expectations.

For investors, rather than trying to precisely time the market, it is better to learn from history, track key indicators, and develop risk management plans to improve success probabilities. The combination of Bitcoin’s regularity and rational market behavior will create opportunities for well-prepared participants.