2025-12-26 15:22:09

Recently, the most talked-about topic in the market is still tariffs. But to be honest, most discussions miss the point. Having been involved in the crypto market for many years, my observation is: on the surface, it's trade friction; behind the scenes, the real bomb is the debt crisis of the US$37 trillion US Treasury bonds.

**The Debt Black Hole Has Become a Time Bomb**

The data is clear: US federal debt will surpass US$37 trillion by 2025. The annual interest payments alone exceed US$1 trillion — a figure more alarming than the defense budget. Even more concerning, US$9.2 trillion of Treasury bonds will mature in 2025, with US$6.5 trillion due in June, a scale comparable to the total GDP of Germany and Japan.

For a long time, US fiscal policy has fallen into a vicious cycle. Military spending can't be cut, social welfare can't be significantly reduced, and tax cuts squeeze revenue. The result? Where does the money come from? It can only be borrowed continuously and money supply expanded excessively. As the snowball grows larger, international rating agencies have begun to downgrade the US sovereign credit rating.

**Financial Game Behind Tariffs**

This is Trump's real consideration. Since the hole can't be filled, why not use tariff policies to create panic and force global capital to continue buying US debt? Look at what happened after the April 2025 announcement of additional tariffs. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury dropped from 4.2% to 3.9%, saving about US$30 billion in annual interest costs. This is not a trade war at all — it's a "panic-driven" financial operation.

For the crypto market, the evolution of the US debt crisis directly affects global liquidity expectations and the pricing logic of risk assets. Paying attention to this underlying change is more valuable than chasing hot news.

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CryptoPhoenix

· 1h ago

Damn, finally someone has explained the underlying logic clearly. Most people are still tangled up in tariffs, unaware that the minefield of US debt has long been laid. What we need to do is quietly build positions during the panic repair phase, and when value returns, it will be a rebirth moment. Don't panic, this wave of decline is actually preparing for the next round of liquidity release. Remember, the most important thing when losing money is to stay clear-headed; navigating the cycle relies on patience. How should I put it, after experiencing so many market lessons, I am no longer anxious about the US debt crisis. Because the opportunity is just hidden within this chaos. Once the mindset is rebuilt, when dawn arrives, there will be no confusion. Another day of being toyed with by the system, but the phoenix will always undergo rebirth. Stick to your faith; the bottom range is the true birthplace of heroes. Energy conservation—today’s panic is tomorrow’s upward momentum. As always, don’t focus on the news, pay attention to underlying changes.

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ChainWanderingPoet

· 16h ago

I respect this logic. Tariffs are just a smokescreen; the real story depends on how the US debt plays out. --- The 37 trillion dollar black hole is right here. Someone will eventually take the hit, and the crypto world is the first to feel the shockwave. --- That 6.5 trillion in June... just wait and see, the market will really start to dance then. --- Basically, it's still just printing money. In the end, it's us retail investors who suffer. --- Panic-driven—that term is used perfectly. Wall Street is all about falling for it. --- US debt interest payments exceeding the defense budget? That data is crazy. No wonder they keep stirring the pot. --- Crypto markets should keep an eye on this line; it's more reliable than watching candlestick charts. --- So ultimately, it's a matter of the dollar's lifespan. No wonder everyone is hoarding coins. --- When liquidity expectations change, altcoins die first. We need to watch this wave carefully. --- Wow, tariffs are just a cover-up. The real goal is to maintain demand for US debt.

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WalletDetective

· 16h ago

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