Altseason Decoded: How to Precisely Position Yourself During the Altseason Wave?

What is альтсезон? Understanding the Core Logic in One Article

альтсезон (altcoin season) is the most exciting moment in the crypto market—when the total market capitalization of altcoins begins to surpass Bitcoin, creating a broad upward wave. Simply put, funds rotate from Bitcoin into altcoins, ushering in a golden age for altcoins.

However, this phenomenon has changed significantly in recent years. Previously, альтсезон was a direct capital rotation: after Bitcoin reached a certain high, investors sought higher returns and shifted their money into altcoins. But now? The rules have been rewritten.

According to research from crypto data analysis platforms, the current drivers of альтсезон have upgraded from mere “fund rotation” to “liquidity expansion.” The liquidity of stablecoins (USDT, USDC, etc.) is a better predictor of альтсезон than Bitcoin’s relative performance. This reflects market maturity—altcoin prosperity no longer relies on hype but is based on real ecosystem development and institutional capital participation.

альтсезон vs Bitcoin Dominance Period: The Game Rules of Capital Flows

The difference between these two periods may seem simple, but it actually reflects the deeper logic of the market:

Bitcoin Dominance Period: Investors’ risk appetite declines, seeking safe havens. During this time, Bitcoin gains popularity, while altcoins fall into silence. Market sentiment shifts from “greed” to “fear.”

альтсезон Period: Market sentiment reverses, investors begin to pursue high risk and high returns. Large funds withdraw from Bitcoin and move into ecosystems like Ethereum and Solana, gradually penetrating mid- and small-cap projects.

The key indicator is Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D)—the lower this number (usually below 50%), the stronger the signal that альтсезон is starting.

New Variables in the Current альтсезон: Institutions and Liquidity

By the end of 2024, the crypto market has experienced several historic moments:

1. Mass Institutional Capital Influx: After the approval of Spot Bitcoin ETFs, over 70 such products have launched, greatly boosting institutional confidence in crypto assets.

2. Policy Expectations Warm Up: The new US administration may adopt a pro-crypto stance, injecting confidence into the entire market.

3. Market Cap Hits Record Highs: The global crypto market cap surpasses $3.2 trillion, exceeding the 2021 bull market peak, reflecting a qualitative leap.

4. Bitcoin Approaching $100,000: Although not yet突破, approaching this psychological level is itself a positive signal.

These factors collectively lay the foundation for the start of a new альтсезон. Unlike previous cycles driven by ICOs or DeFi hotspots, today’s альтсезон exhibits a multi-track parallel pattern:

• AI Concept Coins: Render (RNDR), Akash Network (AKT), etc., surged over 1000%
• GameFi Sector: ImmutableX (IMX), Ronin (RON), etc., experience a second spring
• Memecoins Evolution: From mere entertainment to new assets integrating AI and utility
• Solana Ecosystem Revival: Breaking the “dead chain” label, ecosystem tokens surged up to 945%

Four Stages to Understand the Evolution Path of альтсезон

Stage 1: Bitcoin Absorption Phase

Funds concentrate into Bitcoin, BTC dominance index rises, altcoins remain dormant. This seemingly dull phase is actually a period of energy accumulation.

Stage 2: Ethereum Breakthrough

Ethereum, as the ecosystem king, leads the breakout, attracting institutional and retail investors. The ETH/BTC ratio rising marks this stage.

Stage 3: Major Altcoins Rise

Solana, Cardano, Polygon, and other major altcoins with established ecosystems begin to catch up, often with double-digit gains.

Stage 4: Full-scale альтсезон Explosion

Small-cap projects surge one after another, BTC dominance index drops below 40%, market sentiment becomes extremely greedy—this is the final harvest stage.

How to Identify the Arrival of альтсезон? Five Major Signals

Signal 1: Collapse of Bitcoin Dominance Index

Historical experience shows that BTC.D falling below 50% is the most reliable early warning. More aggressive investors start positioning when it drops below 60%.

Signal 2: Surge in ETH/BTC Ratio

The higher this ratio, the stronger Ethereum’s performance relative to Bitcoin, often indicating альтсезон is imminent or underway.

Signal 3: альтсезон Index Breaks 75

The Altseason Index from Blockchain Center quantifies альтсезон with data. As of December 2024, it has risen to 78, clearly indicating the market has entered the альтсезон zone.

Signal 4: Concentrated Gains in Specific Sectors

Gains over 40% in memecoins (DOGE, SHIB, BONK, PEPE, etc.) and AI concept coins often signal альтсезон. These highly sensitive assets react first to market sentiment.

Signal 5: Surge in Stablecoin Trading Pairs Activity

A sharp increase in trading volume of USDT, USDC pairs with altcoins indicates liquidity is shifting toward altcoins—this is the latest signal of альтсезон initiation.

Three Memories of Past альтсезон

End of 2017 - Early 2018: Dawn and Dusk of ICO Frenzy

Bitcoin dominance plummeted from 87% to 32%, Ethereum, Ripple, Litecoin, and other new concept coins shined. Market cap exploded from $30 billion to $60 billion. But regulatory crackdown abruptly ended this альтсезон.

Early 2021: Double Carnival of DeFi and NFTs

Bitcoin dominance dropped from 70% to 38%, altcoin market share soared from 30% to 62%. DeFi projects, NFT coins, and even memecoins enjoyed liquidity. Market cap peaked at $3 trillion.

End of 2023 - Mid 2024: Multi-Track Simultaneous Rise

Unlike previous single-hotspot-driven альтсезон, this cycle features multiple sectors dancing together. AI, GameFi, DePIN, Web3, and other emerging sectors all take off simultaneously, increasing market selectivity.

Five Traps to Avoid During альтсезон

While альтсезон is tempting, risks are equally deadly:

Trap 1: Over-Leverage
Altcoins are far more volatile than Bitcoin. Using leverage during альтсезон is like playing with fire—one slip and you could lose everything.

Trap 2: FOMO at the Peak
The final stage of альтсезон is often the most euphoric and dangerous. Entering at this point often makes you the last bag-holder.

Trap 3: Ignoring Fundamentals
Rug pulls and project scams happen frequently during альтсезон. FOMO investing without due diligence is gambling with real money.

Trap 4: Concentrated Investment
Putting all your chips into one project—99% of projects may rise, but what if that 1% fails?

Trap 5: No Take-Profit Plan
Many investors aim for maximum profit during альтсезон but end up watching their gains turn into losses. Pre-set exit points and stop-loss levels are essential. Greed is the biggest enemy of альтсезон.

Three Trading Principles During альтсезон

First Rule: Doing Homework Is Your Ticket In
Research projects, evaluate teams, understand technology—these are not optional. If you don’t understand, don’t touch. Better to miss some opportunities than lose everything.

Second Rule: Diversification Is Always the Best Insurance
Don’t put all eggs in one basket. Diversify within promising sectors and balance across different sectors.

Third Rule: Set Pre-Defined Stop-Loss and Take-Profit
The joy of альтсезон often comes from rapid gains, but rapid declines also exist. Set your mental price points in advance—take profits when needed, cut losses when necessary. Greed is the biggest enemy.

How Policy Changes Reshape альтсезон?

Regulatory environment has a profound and complex impact on альтсезон.

Negative Example: In 2018, governments worldwide cracked down on ICOs, directly destroying the momentum of that cycle’s альтсезон.

Positive Example: The US SEC’s approval of Spot Bitcoin ETFs injected institutional capital, boosting overall confidence. If similar policy benefits extend to more altcoins (e.g., ETF coverage), the durability of альтсезон will greatly increase.

The new US administration’s pro-crypto stance is seen as a key catalyst for the next альтсезон. Investors should closely monitor policy developments, as a single policy document could rewrite the timeline of альтсезон.

Conclusion: The Essence of альтсезон

альтсезон is not gambling; it reflects the market’s maturity. Early альтсезон was driven by speculation; today’s альтсезон is fueled by ecosystem prosperity and liquidity—this is a sign of progress.

Capturing the opportunity of альтсезон is not difficult; the challenge is maintaining rationality amid the swings of greed and fear. Do your homework, diversify risks, stick to discipline—then альтсезон will be your friend; otherwise, it could devour your account.

The current cycle of альтсезон at the end of 2024 has already shown its unique features—multi-sector parallel, institutional capital participation, warming policy expectations. This is not just a hype cycle but a milestone indicating market maturity.