When will the Bitcoin bullish cycle arrive? An in-depth analysis of market cycles and future opportunities

In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin’s price movements have never been a linear upward trend. Since its inception in 2009, this largest digital asset by market capitalization has experienced multiple distinct expansion and contraction cycles, each bringing significant opportunities and risks. Understanding these market patterns is crucial for investors aiming to seize the next upward wave.

Core Drivers of Bitcoin Bullish Cycles

What defines a truly bullish market? Simply put, it is a period of sustained rapid price increases, usually triggered by key events such as halving events, institutional capital inflows, regulatory favorable developments, or shifts in public perception.

Data shows that Bitcoin tends to experience significant gains after each halving: 5200% after 2012, 315% after 2016, and 230% after 2020. This cyclical pattern has become the market’s “golden rule.”

What are the characteristics of the most recent cycle? After the approval of the US spot Bitcoin ETF in January 2024, institutional investors flooded in. So far, these ETFs have attracted over $4.5 billion in capital, with major companies like MicroStrategy and other institutional investors continuously accumulating, further tightening market circulation supply.

Technical Indicators for Identifying Bullish Signals

To catch the bottom and avoid the top, mastering key technical tools is essential. An RSI (Relative Strength Index) above 70 typically indicates strong buying momentum; upward breakthroughs of the 50-day and 200-day moving averages often signal the start of an uptrend.

On-chain data is equally important. Rising wallet activity, increased stablecoin inflows, and declining Bitcoin reserves on exchanges are signals of institutional accumulation. The situation in 2024 confirms this: over $4.5 billion flowed into Bitcoin ETFs, indicating large capital deployment.

Currently, Bitcoin is priced at $87.27K, with room to grow toward its all-time high of $126.08K. Market sentiment shows a 50/50 split between bullish and bearish outlooks, a balance that often precedes a directional breakout.

Historical Review: Three Iconic Cycles

( 2013: From Margins to Spotlight

That year, Bitcoin surged from $145 in May to $1200 in December, a 730% increase. It was the first time cryptocurrency truly entered the public eye, driven by the Cyprus banking crisis which prompted some capital inflow.

But prosperity was followed by pain. Early 2014 saw the hack and collapse of Mt.Gox, the world’s largest exchange at the time, severely damaging market confidence. This event underscored the importance of infrastructure.

) 2017: Retail Frenzy Era

From $1,000 to $20,000 in just 12 months. The driving forces included the ICO boom, media hype, and retail investors’ FOMO. Trading volume exploded from an average of $200 million daily at the start of the year to $15 billion by year-end.

What was the cost? The 2018 bear market wiped out 84% of Bitcoin’s value. Retail investors who entered at the top will never forget this disaster.

2020-2021: Institutional Era Begins

From $8,000 to over $64,000, Bitcoin gained recognition from major institutions for the first time. Companies like Tesla and MicroStrategy allocated assets to Bitcoin, fundamentally changing the market participant structure. Institutional investments exceeded $10 billion, marking a milestone.

2024-2025: A New Pattern Taking Shape

The current cycle’s uniqueness lies in institutional support. The approval of spot ETFs has eliminated the last reservations of traditional investors. BlackRock holds over 467,000 BTC through the IBIT ETF. The total holdings of all Bitcoin ETFs have surpassed 1 million BTC.

Expectations of halving, clearer regulations, and geopolitical hedging needs are all contributing factors. Most importantly, this rise is built on a more mature market infrastructure rather than pure speculation.

New Variables for Future Cycles

Bitcoin as a National Reserve Asset

In 2024, the US proposed the “BITCOIN Act,” recommending that the Treasury purchase 1 million BTC over five years. This is no joke—it suggests sovereign nations might incorporate Bitcoin into their strategic reserves.

Bhutan has accumulated over 13,000 BTC through its national investment fund, and El Salvador was the first country to adopt BTC as legal tender. If this trend continues, Bitcoin could evolve from a “risky asset” to a “national-level financial instrument.”

New Exchange-Traded Products

Spot ETFs are just the beginning. More diversified crypto funds, custodial products, derivatives, and other institutional-grade tools are expected to launch, further lowering participation barriers.

Possibility of Technical Upgrades

If protocol upgrades like OP_CAT are approved, they could enable Bitcoin to expand Layer-2 applications and DeFi functionalities, opening up entirely new use cases. This would fundamentally enhance Bitcoin’s store of value capabilities.

Continuity of Halving Cycles

The next halving in 2028 is approaching, and history suggests it often triggers a new rally. The fixed supply cap of 21 million and growing institutional demand form a long-term bullish fundamental outlook.

How to Prepare for the Next Uptrend

Step 1: Understand the Fundamentals
Not only know Bitcoin’s price but also grasp its technical principles, monetary policy, and market cycles. Read the whitepaper and study market performance after previous halvings.

Step 2: Develop a Clear Investment Plan
Define whether your goal is short-term trading or long-term holding, set risk tolerance and stop-loss levels. Diversification is better than all-in on a single asset.

Step 3: Choose Secure and Reliable Platforms
The choice of exchange impacts fund safety. Ensure the platform has robust security measures, sufficient liquidity, and transparent fee structures.

Step 4: Protect Your Assets
For long-term holdings, using hardware wallets for offline storage is essential. Enable two-factor authentication, regularly back up private keys. The Mt.Gox lesson must not be forgotten.

Step 5: Stay Informed on Market Dynamics
Follow reputable news sources for regulatory changes, on-chain data, and macroeconomic signals. Market perception shifts often precede price movements.

Step 6: Avoid Emotional Decisions
Buying at $87K and wanting to sell at $90K? Such trades rarely generate big profits. Stick to your plan and avoid being driven by short-term volatility.

Step 7: Prepare for Tax Implications
Crypto investment tax consequences vary by region. Keep accurate records of every transaction and consult professionals to avoid future troubles.

Step 8: Engage with the Community
Participate in industry forums, webinars, and offline events. Interacting with other investors and experts helps keep you at the forefront.

How to Interpret Key Market Signals

When you see continuous inflows into institutional ETFs, it indicates large capital accumulation; when exchange Bitcoin reserves decline steadily, it suggests active accumulation; when regulatory attitudes shift from opposition to understanding, it signals policy environment improvement.

While each signal alone may seem insignificant, their simultaneous appearance often heralds the arrival of a new cycle.

When Will the Next Bull Market Start?

Accurately predicting timing is nearly impossible, but the directional trend is clear. Recurrent market cycles, strengthened fundamentals, and increased institutional participation all point toward upward potential.

Key time points to watch include: market reactions before and after halving, major ETF flow data, government policy statements, and changes in the global economic landscape.

Even if current prices are below historical highs, Bitcoin has long evolved from a “speculative asset” to an “asset allocation tool.” The next cycle will not rely solely on hype like in 2017 but will be built on more mature infrastructure and expanding use cases.

For prepared investors, this could be a once-in-a-decade opportunity. The key is patience, discipline, and knowledge—so that when the opportunity truly arrives, you won’t be caught off guard.