Bitcoin Bullish Cycles: Understanding Market Movements and Predicting Future Trends

2024-2025: Bitcoin’s New Era

The Bitcoin market has undergone a profound transformation in 2024. The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs by the U.S. securities regulator in January has opened the door for institutional investors to access Bitcoin through traditional financial products. This historic step has brought billions of dollars in new capital into the market.

As of November 2024, Bitcoin’s price tests the $93,000 level, achieving a 132% gain since the beginning of the year. The latest data shows Bitcoin trading around $87,240, with a 1.04% decrease in the past 24 hours. Its market capitalization has surpassed $1.74 trillion.

What Is a Bull Run and How Is It Defined?

In the context of Bitcoin, a bull run refers to rapid and sustained price increases. These periods are often triggered by significant catalytic events—halving events, legal approvals, institutional adoption, or macroeconomic factors.

Technical indicators can signal these trends in advance. As the Relative Strength Index (RSI) rises above 70, and the breaking of the 50-day and 200-day moving averages occurs, it signals a strong upward trend. On-chain data also provides critical clues—an increase in wallet activity, stablecoin inflows, and a decrease in Bitcoin reserves on exchanges indicate investor accumulation.

A Look at Bitcoin’s Past Bull Cycles

2013: The First Major Rally

Bitcoin first attracted mainstream attention in 2013. Starting from $145 in May, it surged to over $1,200 by December, a 730% increase. This period marked the beginning of widespread interest in financial innovation.

The Cyprus banking crisis pushed some investors toward safe assets. Bitcoin emerged as a decentralized alternative during this time. However, the security breach and collapse of the Mt. Gox exchange led to a prolonged downturn.

2017: The Year of Retail Investors

The 2017 bull run brought Bitcoin into the center of mainstream financial discussions. Starting the year at $1,000, it reached around $20,000 in December—a 1,900% jump.

The Initial Coin Offering (ICO) craze attracted millions investing in new projects, shaping the market. Retail investor participation rapidly increased, with daily trading volumes soaring from $200 million to $15 billion. However, regulatory pressure from China and the correction beginning in early 2018 reduced the market by 84%.

2020-2021: Institutional Transformation

During the pandemic, Bitcoin was repositioned as a hedge against inflation. Trading at around $8,000 in January 2020, it surpassed $64,000 in April 2021—a 700% increase.

A defining feature of this period was the participation of institutional investors. MicroStrategy, Tesla, and other publicly traded companies allocated parts of their balance sheets to Bitcoin. Global financial giants like BlackRock and State Street began showing interest in this asset class.

Factors Unique to the 2024 Bull Run

The Role of ETF Approval

The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. has brought institutional and retail investors closer to Bitcoin. After January 2024, capital flowing into ETFs exceeded $4.5 billion in November. This influx has democratized access to Bitcoin within traditional portfolio management structures.

The Fourth Halving Cycle

The Bitcoin halving in April 2024 reduced mining rewards by half. Historically, each halving event has created scarcity, triggering price increases:

• 2012 halving: +5,200%
• 2016 halving: +315%
• 2020 halving: +230%

Factors to Watch for Future Bull Runs

Strategic Reserve Status

The 2024 Bitcoin Law proposed by U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis aims to establish Bitcoin as a national treasury reserve asset. Countries like El Salvador and Bhutan have already taken this step. Bhutan’s government investment fund holding over 13,000 Bitcoin places it among the largest sovereign Bitcoin holders.

This development strengthens Bitcoin’s status as “digital gold” and could trigger future upward cycles.

Technological Advancements

The reintegration of the OP_CAT code in the Bitcoin network, along with Layer 2 solutions, will increase Bitcoin’s transaction capacity. DeFi (Decentralized Finance) applications will become operable on Bitcoin, expanding its use cases.

Macroeconomic Environment

Interest rates, inflation expectations, and changes in monetary policy directly influence Bitcoin demand. Currency devaluations in emerging economies may increase flight-to-quality demand for Bitcoin.

Preparations Before a Bull Run

Monitor Market Information

Reliable news sources, regulatory announcements, and on-chain analytics tools can provide early signals to investors. Attention should be paid to ETF inflows, major institutional moves, and macroeconomic trends.

Define Investment Strategy

Your financial goals, risk tolerance, and investment horizon should be clearly defined. Are you seeking short-term gains or long-term growth? Portfolio diversification helps manage volatility.

Take Security Precautions

Hardware wallets keep Bitcoin offline for long-term holding. Two-factor authentication and choosing secure exchanges prevent loss of funds.

Control Emotions

FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) is common in bull markets. Avoid impulsive decisions, use stop-loss orders, and stick to your pre-defined strategy for success.

Understand Tax Obligations

Tax implications of crypto transactions vary by country. Keeping detailed records of all transactions facilitates tax reporting.

When Will the Next Bull Run Come?

While precise timing of Bitcoin is unpredictable, upcoming halving cycles, new institutional products, and regulatory developments will continue shaping the market. The 2026 halving event could trigger a bullish trend based on historical patterns.

Currently, Bitcoin is consolidating around $87,240, with moving averages and technical levels forming critical support points. Investors should closely monitor exchange reserves, stablecoin inflows, and institutional asset acquisitions to prepare for potential momentum shifts.

Bitcoin’s adaptability and market dynamics will continue to make this unique asset significant in the long term. With knowledge, preparation, and discipline, investors can capitalize on future bull runs.