Understanding the Bull Run Cycle in the Cryptocurrency Market: Bitcoin's Past and Future

The path Bitcoin has followed since 2009 has become a financial saga with each bull run entering the scene. Up to its last halving, this digital asset has witnessed countless cycles of rises and falls. Deciphering these cycles is a critical skill for crypto investors and enthusiasts to seize future opportunities. Examining the dynamics behind Bitcoin’s past bull runs can serve as a guide in predicting its future moves.

What Is a Bull Run and How Is It Shaped?

A bull run refers to a period during which prices increase continuously and rapidly. These upward trends are often triggered by halving events, widespread adoption, new regulations, or increased institutional interest.

During the first major rally in 2013, Bitcoin surged from $145 in May to over $1,200 in December, a 730% jump. This period marked Bitcoin’s introduction to the public and the discovery of its potential as an alternative store of value.

The wild rise in 2017 resulted in approximately a 1,900% gain. Starting at $1,000 in January, Bitcoin reached $20,000 in December. This rally was fueled especially by retail investors entering the market and the ICO (Initial Coin Offering) frenzy.

The 2020-2021 period saw the emergence of institutional players and the “digital gold” narrative. Bitcoin rose from $8,000 in January 2020 to $64,000 in April 2021, a 700% increase. Public companies like MicroStrategy and Tesla invested billions of dollars into Bitcoin during this time, changing market dynamics.

Halving: The Pulse of Bitcoin Bull Runs

The halving mechanism embedded in Bitcoin’s protocol reduces mining rewards by roughly half every four years. This supply shock has historically been the strongest trigger for bull markets.

After the 2012 halving, Bitcoin increased by 5,200%. Following the 2016 halving, there was a 315% rise. Post the 2020 halving, a 230% value increase was observed.

These price increases driven by scarcity are based on economic fundamentals due to Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million coins. Each halving creates expectations of price appreciation among investors due to limited supply.

The fourth halving in 2024 occurred in April, signaling the start of a new bull run phase. If this historical trend continues, future halving cycles will once again accelerate the market.

2024-2025: Spot ETF Approval and a New Horizon

At the beginning of 2024, the (SEC) approved spot Bitcoin ETFs. This decision significantly eased access for traditional investors to Bitcoin. From January to November 2024, approximately $28 billion flowed into these ETFs.

Historical data shows that Bitcoin’s price movement during this period was remarkable. Starting around $40,000 in January 2024, Bitcoin reached $93,000 in November, a 132% gain. The latest data shows BTC trading at around $86,950.

Major asset management firms like BlackRock and Vanguard have begun offering tools that provide institutional investors access to Bitcoin. This move is seen as a sign of the market’s maturation.

How to Recognize Signs of a Bull Run?

A combination of technical indicators, on-chain data, and macroeconomic factors can signal an approaching bull run.

When the Relative Strength Index (RSI) exceeds 70, strong buying momentum dominates the market. Breaking above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages also indicates the start of an upward trend.

On-chain metrics such as increasing wallet activity, influxes of stablecoins, and decreasing Bitcoin reserves on exchanges are notable. In 2024, all these metrics sent positive signals.

Monitoring institutional behavior is also crucial. When large companies accumulate Bitcoin or withdraw funds from exchanges, it supports a bull run through reduced supply.

Recorded Bull Runs and Their Aftermaths

2013 Bull Market: The Cyprus banking crisis directed investors toward Bitcoin as a decentralized store of value. However, a security breach at Mt. Gox ended this rally with a bear market, and Bitcoin dropped to $300 in 2014.

2017 Explosion: The ICO boom and retail investor influx brought Bitcoin into mainstream discussions. But in 2018, increased scrutiny from Basel, central banks, and regulators caused prices to fall by 84%.

2020-2021 Institutional Era: Post-COVID monetary easing policies and inflation fears drove investors into Bitcoin. Institutional investment defined this rally, though a price correction occurred mid-2021.

2024-2025 ETF Stage: Approval of regulated financial products signals a new phase for the crypto market. This period holds the potential for a more stable and sustained bull run.

How to Profit from a Bull Run: A Practical Guide

( Educate Yourself

Learn the fundamentals of Bitcoin’s technology, mining process, and decentralized nature. Analyze past bull runs to understand which factors triggered price movements.

) Set Strategies in Advance

Clarify your financial goals, risk tolerance, and investment horizon. Are you aiming for short-term gains or long-term accumulation? Shape your portfolio accordingly.

Take Security Precautions

Use hardware wallets to store your Bitcoin. Enable two-factor authentication (2FA) on secure exchanges. These are among the first steps to protect your crypto investments.

Stay Informed on News and Regulations

SEC decisions, government policies, and macroeconomic trends can influence bull runs. Regularly follow reputable crypto news sources.

Avoid Emotional Decisions

Market fluctuations can induce fear and greed. Stick to your predetermined strategy. Use stop-loss orders to protect against significant losses.

( Understand Tax Implications

Crypto transactions may have tax consequences. Learn the regulations in your jurisdiction and keep records of all your transactions.

Expectations for Future Bull Runs

Strategic Reserves: Countries like Bhutan and El Salvador have begun adding Bitcoin to their official reserves. The proposed 2024 Bitcoin Law in the US Senate could be a sign of government-level adoption. If major economies accept Bitcoin as reserve assets, demand could increase significantly.

Technological Developments: Bitcoin Layer-2 solutions and features like OP_CAT could expand network functionality. The ability for DeFi applications to operate on Bitcoin could add new use cases and boost demand.

Institutional Tools: More ETFs, futures, and other regulated crypto products will enter the market. These tools will lower entry barriers for traditional investors.

Halving Cycles: The next halving is expected in 2028. Based on historical trends, this could trigger another bull run.

Risks and Challenges

Volatility: Bitcoin’s high fluctuations can lead to sudden losses. Be prepared for quick corrections triggered by profit-taking.

Regulatory Uncertainty: New laws and restrictive policies can heavily impact prices.

Macroeconomic Factors: Rising interest rates or economic downturns may push investors toward safer assets.

Environmental Concerns: While Bitcoin mining’s carbon footprint might attract ESG-focused investors, it could also deter some.

Market Saturation: As Bitcoin’s market cap grows, achieving the same percentage gains becomes more difficult. Alternative crypto assets may divert investor attention.

Conclusion: Will the Bull Run Cycle Continue?

Bitcoin’s past fifteen years demonstrate adaptability and resilience. Recoveries after each bear market highlight its long-term potential.

While the exact timing of the next bull run cannot be predicted, historical patterns and current market dynamics suggest ongoing growth in the crypto space. ETF approvals, institutional participation, government reserves, and technological advancements are ready catalysts for future rallies.

For investors, learning from past bull runs helps make informed predictions about future moves. Being prepared, educated, and patient is key to navigating the high volatility of the crypto market.

When the next Bitcoin bull run will start is ultimately determined by the market. However, those who follow this cycle will be better prepared for opportunities that should not be missed.