Bitcoin Price Increase: Cryptocurrency Market Cycles and Key Signals to Watch

Bitcoin has long ceased to be a story about technology alone. Its economic rallies have become an inseparable part of any financial discussion. Understanding these cycles helps investors distinguish signals from noise and better prepare for market changes.

The Four Major Bitcoin Bull Phases

2013: When Bitcoin First Gained Fame

2013 was a pivotal milestone. Bitcoin jumped from around $145 in May to nearly $1,200 by the end of the year — a 730% increase. This explosion was not random but stemmed from growing acceptance and demand from early investors.

However, the collapse of Mt. Gox — the exchange handling 70% of Bitcoin transactions at the time — triggered a massive sell-off. Bitcoin’s price plummeted below $300 in 2014, losing 75% of its value. The lesson here: weak infrastructure is a major threat.

2017: ICO Fever and Retail Boom

2017 was a different game. Bitcoin rose from about $1,000 in January to nearly $20,000 in December — a 1,900% increase. Daily trading volume surged from under $200 million to over $15 billion. What do these numbers tell us? Money started flowing in like a river.

The main driver was the ICO (Initial Coin Offering) craze. Hundreds of new projects raised funds via tokens, and Bitcoin was the gateway into the crypto world. Media attention created a positive feedback loop: high levels → media coverage → FOMO → higher prices.

But markets can’t always go up. From $20,000, Bitcoin dropped to around $3,200 by late 2018 — an 84% decline. Regulators tightened controls, China banned ICOs and exchanges, regulatory pressure cast a shadow over the market.

2020-2021: Institutional Investor Generation

This rally was different. From around $8,000 in early 2020, Bitcoin soared to $64,000 in April 2021 — a 700% increase. For the first time, major names like MicroStrategy, Tesla, Square publicly invested in Bitcoin.

The story changed. Bitcoin shifted from the “internet’s strange currency” to “digital gold” — an inflation hedge. Governments pumped trillions into stimulus, interest rates hit zero, and investors sought safe havens. Bitcoin became the answer.

Institutional capital exceeded $10 billion. MicroStrategy holds over 125,000 BTC. Bitcoin futures were approved, gradually opening the doors to mainstream access.

2024-2025: Spot Bitcoin ETF and Synergy

In January 2024, the SEC approved a Bitcoin spot ETF. This is no small news. Within weeks, $10 billion flowed in. By November, this figure reached over $28 billion, surpassing gold ETF funds.

Current data (2025):

• Bitcoin Price: ~87,010 USD
• 1-Year Change: -12.50%
• Market Cap: $1.737 trillion
• Circulating Supply: ~20 million BTC

Bitcoin rose from $40,000 to $93,000 in November 2024 — a 132% increase. But why did it decline afterward?

The fourth halving event in April 2024 reduced mining rewards, tightening supply. History shows: each halving is followed by a price increase. This pattern repeats from 2012 (up 5,200%), 2016 (up 315%), 2020 (up 230%).

Warning Signs of an Upcoming Bull Run

Technical Indicators: RSI, Moving Averages

RSI above 70 signals strong momentum. Price crossing above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages often marks the start of an uptrend. In November 2024, Bitcoin’s RSI rose above 70, and the price broke key moving averages — both “green” signals.

On-Chain Data: Wallets, Stablecoins, Exchange Reserves

• Increasing active wallets → new investors entering
• Inflow of stablecoins into exchanges → ready to buy
• Decreasing BTC on exchanges → investors accumulating, not selling

In 2024, all three signals are green. MicroStrategy keeps buying BTC, ETF funds are flowing in like a vacuum.

Macroeconomic Factors

SEC approval in January 2024 = legal opportunity for institutions. High inflation = Bitcoin seen as a hedge. Lower interest rates → risk assets become more attractive. All pointing in one direction.

The Future: Where Could Bitcoin Go?

Bitcoin as a National Reserve

Senator Cynthia Lummis’s Bitcoin Bill 2024 proposes: the US could buy up to 1 million BTC over 5 years. If implemented, this would be a game-changer. Bhutan has accumulated over 13,000 BTC, El Salvador 5,875 BTC. If other countries follow suit, global demand increases = price rises.

Layer-2 Technology for Scaling

Upgrading OP_CAT could enable Bitcoin to process thousands of transactions per second. Bitcoin DeFi becomes a reality, no longer just a store of value. This opens a completely different competitive landscape.

Continuing Halving Cycles

Bitcoin’s supply is capped at 21 million. Halving every 4 years = increasing scarcity. When supply decreases but demand remains — or increases — prices have room to grow.

How to Prepare for the Next Bull Run

Study History: Read about 2013, 2017, 2020. Each cycle has different trigger factors. Recognizing them is key.

Build a Plan:

• What are your goals? Long-term growth or short-term profits?
• How much can you tolerate losing?
• How long is your investment horizon?

Diversify: Bitcoin is a strong choice but shouldn’t be 100% of your portfolio. Include other cryptocurrencies and traditional assets.

Choose Reputable Exchanges: Enable two-factor authentication (2FA), use cold storage for Bitcoin, perform regular security checks. These are basic features.

Monitor the Market: Major events (halving, new regulations, product approvals) all impact prices. Stay alert.

Manage Emotions: Fear and greed are the biggest enemies. A 50% rise doesn’t mean go all-in. A 50% drop doesn’t mean sell everything.

Use Stop-Loss Orders: If price falls below a set level, automatic sell. Limits potential losses.

Handle Taxes: Every transaction has tax implications. Keep detailed records, consult professionals if needed.

Conclusion: No One Knows for Sure, But Preparation Helps

The exact timing of the next bull run remains a mystery. But Bitcoin has proven its resilience through many market cycles. Factors like halving, institutional acceptance, technological development, and government adoption are all adding fuel.

By understanding historical patterns, monitoring on-chain and technical signals, and having a clear plan, you can position yourself better for upcoming volatility. Cryptocurrency isn’t about getting rich fast — it’s about understanding the market, managing risks, and patience.

Be prepared. Stay alert. When the next cycle arrives, you’ll be ready.