Bitcoin From the Starting Point to the Current Cycle: The Journey of a Revolutionary Asset

Since its inception in 2009, Bitcoin has gone through highly volatile development phases. Each bull cycle is not just a price increase but also reflects the evolution of the cryptocurrency market, changes in investor sentiment, and technological breakthroughs. To better understand this movement, we need to analyze fundamental factors and identify signs indicating the market is entering a new phase.

Core Drivers Behind Price Rallies

It’s no coincidence that Bitcoin experiences strong growth cycles. Halving events—occurring every four years and reducing mining rewards by about half—have historically been powerful catalysts. After the 2012 halving, Bitcoin’s price increased by 5,200%; after 2016, by 315%; and after 2020, by 230%. These figures clearly demonstrate the relationship between supply constraints and price appreciation.

Additionally, widespread adoption by major financial institutions and favorable regulatory developments have marked significant turning points. The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 is a prime example, with inflows into these funds exceeding $4.5 billion within just a few months.

Analyzing Historical Cycles: From the Beginning to Today

2013: The Beginning of the Mass Market

2013 marked Bitcoin’s first major public attention. The cryptocurrency’s price rose from about $145 in May to nearly $1,200 in December—a staggering 730% increase. The Cyprus banking crisis that year prompted investors to seek safe alternatives, making Bitcoin an attractive candidate.

However, the collapse of Mt. Gox in early 2014—then handling around 70% of Bitcoin transactions—triggered a severe sell-off. Bitcoin’s price fell below $300, a 75% drop from its peak. This event showed that the market was still unprepared for major shocks.

2017: The Retail Market Boom

2017 was a year of piling up. Bitcoin surged from $1,000 in January to nearly $20,000 in December—an incredible 1,900% increase. The ICO (Initial Coin Offering) frenzy attracted millions of new investors. Daily trading volume rose from under $200 million at the start of the year to over $15 billion by year-end.

User-friendly exchanges emerged, making it easier for retail investors to participate. Media coverage was widespread, creating a feedback loop: rising prices drew attention, attention increased demand, and demand pushed prices higher.

However, like previous rallies, this was unsustainable. China’s ban on ICOs and domestic exchanges in mid-2018 caused Bitcoin to enter a prolonged bear market, dropping from $20,000 to $3,200 (-84%).

2020-2021: The Era of Institutional Capital

A major shift followed. 2020-2021 saw the emergence of large institutional investors. MicroStrategy, Tesla, Square, and other companies began allocating corporate funds into Bitcoin. The price rose from $8,000 at the start of 2020 to over $64,000 in April 2021—an increase of 700%.

The “digital gold” narrative was born at this time. As central banks implemented loose monetary policies and interest rates approached zero, Bitcoin was viewed as a hedge against inflation. By 2021, publicly traded companies held over 125,000 BTC, and institutional capital inflows into Bitcoin exceeded $10 billion.

The approval of Bitcoin futures contracts at the end of 2020 opened a new pathway for institutions. However, concerns over environmental impact and regulatory pressure from the SEC caused corrections, with Bitcoin’s price dropping from $64,000 to $30,000 (-53%) in July 2021.

2024-2025: Stimulus from Spot ETFs

2024 brought a new change. The SEC’s approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January opened the door for traditional investors. Without needing to manage private wallets or understand blockchain tech, fund managers can buy Bitcoin through traditional accounts.

As a result, inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs exceeded $28 billion, surpassing the amount invested in gold ETFs. The fourth halving in April 2024 further boosted optimism—history shows halving events often trigger rallies.

By November 2024, Bitcoin reached a record high above $93,000, up 132% from the start of the year. Companies like MicroStrategy continued accumulating BTC, while ETF funds like BlackRock’s IBIT held over 467,000 BTC.

How to Recognize an Upcoming Bull Run

Accurately predicting timing is impossible, but warning signs can help you prepare:

Technical Indicators: RSI (Relative Strength Index) above 70 often signals strong buying momentum. When prices break above 50-day and 200-day moving averages, it typically indicates an uptrend.

On-Chain Data: Sudden increases in wallet activity, rising stablecoin inflows to exchanges, and Bitcoin withdrawals from exchanges (indicate accumulation), which are optimistic signals.

Global Economic Factors: New approvals from regulators, capital flows from large institutions, and supportive cryptocurrency policies can all trigger a new cycle.

Possible Future Scenarios

( Bitcoin as a Strategic Reserve Asset

U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis introduced the BITCOIN 2024 Act, proposing that the U.S. Treasury buy up to 1 million BTC over five years. If passed, this move would significantly impact global demand. Bhutan and El Salvador have pioneered integrating Bitcoin into national reserves—Bhutan holds over 13,000 BTC, El Salvador about 5,875 BTC. If other countries follow suit, Bitcoin could become a “digital gold” held by governments.

) Technological Upgrades

OP_CAT—a script originally removed from Bitcoin—may soon be reintroduced. If approved, it would enable Bitcoin to process thousands of transactions per second via Layer-2 rollups, opening possibilities for DeFi applications on Bitcoin. This could help Bitcoin compete with Ethereum in this space.

New Institutional Products

Many new crypto ETFs, mutual funds, and other managed products are expected to launch, continuing to attract capital from large institutions.

Preparing for the Next Bull Cycle

Self-Education: Understand Bitcoin’s whitepaper, basic blockchain principles, and its role in the modern financial ecosystem.

Strategy Development: Define your financial goals, risk tolerance, and investment horizon. Diversify your portfolio to mitigate risks.

Choose Reliable Exchanges: Seek platforms with strong security, user-friendly interfaces, and broad support for various cryptocurrencies.

Asset Protection: Use hardware wallets for long-term holdings, enable two-factor authentication ###2FA###, and keep private keys secure.

Stay Informed: Follow reputable news sources, regulatory updates, and market sentiment.

Responsible Trading: Avoid emotional decisions, use stop-loss orders to protect capital, and never invest more than you can afford to lose.

Tax Preparation: Understand your local tax obligations and keep detailed records of all transactions.

Community Engagement: Connect with other investors, participate in forums, and learn from others’ experiences.

Conclusion: The Journey Continues

Bitcoin has demonstrated resilience and adaptability through multiple cycles. From early recognition in 2013 to institutional participation in 2021, and then the ETF boost in 2024—each phase offers lessons and opportunities.

Bitcoin’s cyclical nature, driven by halving, growing investor interest, and technological advances, suggests rallies will continue. However, it’s crucial to remember that Bitcoin remains a volatile asset, and rallies are always accompanied by risks.

To capitalize on future opportunities, you need thorough information, financial preparedness, and readiness to adapt to market changes. Keep an eye on upcoming halving events, ETF flows, regulatory developments, and market sentiment. When signs appear, well-prepared investors will be best positioned to seize the opportunities that the new cycle brings.