Firefly Aerospace is projected to hit the same revenue and earnings targets as Rocket Lab by 2028. Yet $FLY trades at roughly one-tenth the price of $RKLB—a stark valuation gap that raises questions.

The market remains skeptical about whether Firefly's rockets will actually perform. Skepticism is warranted until proven otherwise. But here's the thing: the company's CEO displayed notable confidence just weeks ago, and a launch window is approaching fast.

That confidence-to-skepticism spread? That's where opportunity typically hides. The market often misprice execution risk versus actual capability. If Firefly demonstrates successful launches, this valuation gap could compress quickly. The binary outcome is what makes this interesting—either the market's doubt gets vindicated, or the early believers get rewarded.