Bitcoin Halving 2024: The questions investors need to answer

Bitcoin Halving is one of the most anticipated events in cryptocurrency history. However, not everyone understands how this halving will impact Bitcoin’s price and when the best time to enter the market is.

In April 2024, the Bitcoin network will undergo a significant change: the mining reward will decrease from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per validated block. This event repeats every 210,000 blocks (approximately every 4 years), and it carries more significance than you might think.

Why is Bitcoin Halving an important issue?

When Bitcoin was invented by Satoshi Nakamoto in 2008-2009, it was designed with an automatic inflation control mechanism. Unlike traditional currencies that can be printed at any time, Bitcoin is capped at a maximum supply of 21 million BTC.

Halving is the tool Satoshi used to achieve this goal. By halving the reward for each mined block, the Bitcoin network slows down the creation of new digital currency units. This mimics the scarcity of precious metals — just as gold is not infinite, Bitcoin is also limited.

Data shows that as of August 2023, over 19.46 million BTC have been mined out of the total 21 million. After the upcoming halving event, about 31 more halvings will occur before all bitcoins are issued. If this cycle continues, Bitcoin is expected to be fully mined around the year 2140.

How it works: Mining and validation

To understand how halving affects Bitcoin’s price, first, you need to grasp how Bitcoin’s network operates.

Each Bitcoin block contains new transactions on the network. Miners (miners) use powerful computers to solve complex problems, validate these transactions, and add them to the blockchain. In return for this work, they receive a reward in bitcoin.

This system is called Proof of Work (PoW). It requires enormous computational power to add each block, which protects the network from attacks. With thousands of miners distributed worldwide, no single entity can control more than 50% of the network’s power, making transaction forgery nearly impossible.

Halving automatically triggers after every 210,000 mined blocks. The code is embedded deep into the Bitcoin protocol from the start, requiring no decision from anyone.

History of halving: From 50 BTC to 3.125 BTC

Bitcoin has undergone three previous halvings:

First halving (November 28, 2012): Reward reduced from 50 BTC to 25 BTC. Bitcoin price on that day was $12.35, but 150 days later it rose to $127.

Second halving (July 9, 2016): Reward reduced from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC. Bitcoin was $650.63 then, and 150 days later it surpassed $758.81.

Third halving (May 11, 2020): Reward reduced from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC. Bitcoin was $8,740, and 150 days later it reached $10,943.

Fourth halving (scheduled for April 2024): Reward will decrease from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.

An interesting pattern emerges: although Bitcoin’s price tends to increase in the short term after each halving, the percentage increase diminishes over time. The first halving resulted in over 1000% growth, but subsequent ones did not reach that level.

Impact on miners

Halving creates a series of challenges for Bitcoin mining companies:

Income halved: When the block reward is cut by 50%, mining income is affected. Small, inefficient miners may become unprofitable and be forced to shut down.

Efficiency pressure: This compels mining companies to improve operational efficiency or cease operations. Over time, mining centralization may increase as smaller players exit.

Mining difficulty may decrease: If too many miners drop out, the network automatically reduces mining difficulty to maintain a block every 10 minutes. However, historical data shows this rarely happens significantly, as large mining firms tend to continue operating in hopes of higher Bitcoin prices.

Security risks: Theoretically, if mining power becomes too concentrated, the network could be vulnerable to 51% attacks. However, with Bitcoin’s current broad distribution, this is not an immediate threat.

How does Bitcoin Halving affect prices?

This is a question most investors care about. Historical data shows a complex relationship between halving and Bitcoin’s price:

Accumulation phase: Before each halving, Bitcoin usually undergoes an accumulation period lasting 13-22 months. Prices may rise slightly or stay flat, but no major surprises occur.

Bull run phase: After halving, Bitcoin often enters a bullish cycle lasting 10-15 months. Despite some pullbacks, prices tend to trend upward and reach new highs.

Correction phase: Eventually, Bitcoin’s price enters a bear market (bear market) lasting from one year to over 600 days, depending on the cycle.

The most recent halving cycle (2020-2021) started from a low of $3,300 during the bear market, then surged past $69,000. However, Bitcoin later declined over 77% as the market turned bearish.

Price forecast after the 2024 halving

According to the famous Stock-to-Flow model, Bitcoin is expected to reach around $200,000 by the end of 2024 and $460,000 by May 2025.

However, other analysts have different forecasts:

• Pantera Capital: Bitcoin will reach nearly $150,000 in the next halving cycle
• Lowest futures price: Bitcoin surpasses $100,000 by 2026
• Jesse Myers (Bitcoin investor): Bitcoin will exceed $100,000, but not before the upcoming halving
• Robert Kiyosaki (author of “Rich Dad Poor Dad”): Predicts prices above $100,000 after halving
• Adam Back (CEO of Blockstream): Bitcoin will surpass $100,000 even before halving
• Samson Mow (CEO of Jan3): Bitcoin will hit new highs before halving, not after
• Standard Chartered: Adjusts forecast to $120,000 by end of 2024
• Cathie Wood (CEO of Ark Invest): Confident Bitcoin will reach $1.5 million by 2030

As of today (December 26, 2025), Bitcoin is trading at $87.29K, down 0.71% over the past 30 days. Nonetheless, most analysts remain optimistic about long-term prospects.

How halving affects altcoins like Ethereum

Bitcoin is the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. When Bitcoin moves, most altcoins are also affected. Ethereum (ETH) has a particularly close correlation with Bitcoin.

Crypto strategist Michaël van de Poppe points out that 8-10 months before Bitcoin halving is an ideal time to invest in altcoins, as market sentiment is usually at its lowest then. Historical data shows ETH/USD and ETH/BTC trading pairs often bottom out around 252 days before halving.

Why doesn’t Ethereum halving like Bitcoin?

Ethereum transitioned to a Proof of Stake (PoS) mechanism in September 2022 with the Ethereum 2.0 upgrade. Instead of requiring miners to solve complex problems, Ethereum now uses validators chosen based on the amount of ETH they “stake” as collateral. This method is much more energy-efficient than PoW but still maintains network integrity and security.

Investment strategies for the halving event

If you want to participate in this opportunity, there are several approaches:

1. Buy and hold (HODL): The simplest strategy for beginners. Buy Bitcoin now and hold until the next bull run.

2. Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA): Instead of buying a large amount at once, invest smaller amounts periodically. This reduces risk from price volatility.

3. Active trading: Use fundamental, technical, and market sentiment analysis to buy low and sell high. Requires experience and deeper knowledge.

4. Futures trading: If you accept high risk, you can long or short Bitcoin via futures contracts to speculate on price movements. Leverage can cause significant losses if not managed properly.

5. Passive income: Deposit Bitcoin into lending or staking products to earn yields. Allows you to hold BTC while generating regular income.

6. Arbitrage trading (Arbitrage): Exploit price differences of Bitcoin across different exchanges to make profits.

Things to know before investing

• History is not a guarantee of the future: Although past halving events have been followed by price increases, nothing guarantees this pattern will repeat.

• Macroeconomic factors: Global economic conditions, central bank interest rates, and institutional investor sentiment all influence Bitcoin’s price.

• Technological developments: Innovations like Bitcoin Ordinals (allow data to be inscribed on Bitcoin blockchain) can create new demand and impact prices.

• Regulations: Changes in cryptocurrency policies can significantly affect the market. The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs will open the floodgates for institutional capital.

• Risk management: No matter how optimistic, always set take-profit and stop-loss levels to protect your capital.

Frequently Asked Questions

Can Bitcoin Halving be predicted?
Yes, halving events are embedded in Bitcoin’s code and occur on a strict schedule every 210,000 blocks.

What is the long-term impact of halving on price?
Halving reduces new Bitcoin supply, which can increase prices if demand remains strong. However, many other factors also influence price.

Does halving affect transaction speed or fees?
Not directly. Transaction speed and fees depend on network congestion and mining difficulty.

Are there other cryptocurrencies with halving events like Bitcoin?
Yes, Litecoin also has halving events as part of its monetary policy.

What happens when all 21 million Bitcoins are mined?
No new bitcoins will be created. Miners will only earn transaction fees for validating blocks.

Is Bitcoin Halving good or bad?
It depends on your perspective. For miners, it can be challenging short-term; for long-term investors, it may create significant profit opportunities.