Bitcoin Bull Market Rules Revealed: From $145 to All-Time High, The Wealth-Briting Secret in the Cycle

Since its birth in 2009, Bitcoin has experienced multiple rounds of breathtaking surges and crashes. Each bull market attracts countless investors to join in, while every collapse leaves people heartbroken. But if you study these cycles carefully, you’ll find an interesting pattern: Bitcoin’s bull markets do not come arbitrarily but follow an intrinsic rhythm.

What drives Bitcoin’s bull markets?

Behind each Bitcoin bull run, there is a clear “trigger.”

The halving event is the most regular catalyst. Approximately every four years, Bitcoin’s mining reward is halved. This mechanism effectively creates a “supply shortage.” After the 2012 halving, Bitcoin surged by 5200%; after the 2016 halving, it increased by 315%; and following the 2020 halving, it rose another 230%.

The fourth halving in April 2024 once again confirmed this pattern. Before and after the halving, the circulating new Bitcoin in the market drops significantly, much like restricting the supply of new goods, which naturally pushes prices higher.

Institutional capital inflows change the game. In January 2024, the US SEC approved a spot Bitcoin ETF. How impactful is this event? It is enough to change Bitcoin’s “identity”—from a geek’s toy to an asset for pension funds and hedge funds. As of November this year, Bitcoin spot ETFs attracted over $4.5 billion in inflows, with BlackRock’s IBIT fund alone holding over 467,000 BTC.

What does this mean? It means that whenever large asset management firms discuss new asset allocations, Bitcoin will be on the list. This institutional participation has fundamentally altered Bitcoin’s pricing power.

Policy support opens new horizons. El Salvador adopted Bitcoin as legal tender in 2021, and the government of Bhutan has accumulated over 13,000 BTC through its investment company. US Senators even proposed the “2024 Bitcoin Act,” recommending that the US Treasury buy 1 million BTC over five years.

When governments start taking assets seriously, market sentiment undergoes a fundamental change. It is no longer “I bet this will appreciate,” but “the country recognizes it.”

The four eras of Bitcoin bull markets

First Stage (2013): Wild Growth Era

That year, Bitcoin suddenly appeared like a dark horse. From $145 in May to $1,200 in December—an increase of 730%.

What drove it? The most primitive factors: novelty and panic buying. The Cyprus banking crisis erupted, and people realized “my deposits might be frozen,” prompting them to seek alternatives. Meanwhile, media coverage of Bitcoin increased, and curious retail investors flocked in.

But this era was fragile. In 2014, the largest exchange at the time, Mt. Gox, was hacked, causing Bitcoin to drop from $1,200 to $300—a 75% plunge. This event made people realize: there’s also a problem called “security.”

Second Stage (2017): Retail Frenzy Era

This round was truly “mass participation.” Bitcoin rose from $1,000 to $20,000, a 1,900% increase. Taxi drivers, barbers in the city all discussed Bitcoin.

The catalyst was the ICO boom. Every team could issue a token, and the emergence of numerous new coins drew attention to the entire crypto market. Trading volume soared from an average of $200 million daily at the start of the year to $15 billion daily by year’s end.

But behind the prosperity lurked danger. Chinese regulators banned ICOs, and the US SEC expressed concerns. By early 2018, Bitcoin had fallen over 84%, from $20,000 to $3,200. The lesson: A hype without regulatory support is a bubble.

Third Stage (2020-2021): Institutional Entry Era

This was the phase of Bitcoin’s identity transformation. From $8,000, it surged to $64,000 (later even surpassing $69,000), an increase of over 700%.

But this time, the key players were institutional investors. MicroStrategy, Tesla, Square—public companies began including Bitcoin in their asset allocations. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust absorbed billions of dollars. University endowments and hedge funds also started participating.

The narrative shifted from “gambling” to “hedging inflation.” Against the backdrop of global central banks printing money wildly and real interest rates turning negative, Bitcoin was redefined as “digital gold.”

Of course, this cycle also experienced volatile peaks. In May 2021, China again banned Bitcoin trading, causing the price to fall from $64,000 to $30,000. But institutional players had already positioned themselves, and they were not eager to sell.

Fourth Stage (2024–present): Institutionalization Era

This is the stage we are currently experiencing. The approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs has changed everything.

Why are ETFs so important? Traditional investors need a “formal” channel. They don’t want to manage private keys themselves, fear hacking, or worry about regulators asking “why do you hold this.” But ETFs solve all these issues—they are like standardized financial products.

As a result, from January to November 2024, spot Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated over $4.5 billion in inflows. According to the latest data, Bitcoin’s price has risen from $40,000 at the start of the year to $87,220 (December data). Although there has been some short-term correction, from a yearly perspective, institutional participants have already locked in substantial positions.

How to recognize the upcoming bull market?

Not all price increases are bull markets. True bull markets have clear signals:

Technical signals:

• RSI (Relative Strength Index) breaks above 70, indicating buyers are in control
• The 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average (Golden Cross), a sign of strong upward momentum
• Trading volume significantly increases, with large funds trading frequently

On-chain signals:

• Increased outflows from exchanges—indicating whales are withdrawing Bitcoin rather than selling
• Increased inflows of stablecoins into exchanges—preparing ammunition for large purchases
• Growing active wallet addresses—more people are paying attention and participating

Macro signals:

• Major policy support (e.g., ETF approval)
• Geopolitical or economic events increasing demand for alternative assets
• The previous halving cycle has completed, and the market has enough “fear period” to accumulate

What will the next bull market look like?

Based on current trends, the next bull run may feature new characteristics:

Higher government involvement. The US might actually establish a Bitcoin strategic reserve. This would elevate Bitcoin from a “private asset” to a “national asset.” Once this happens, the market size could expand by 100 times.

Technological innovations unlocking new potential. Bitcoin is attempting to enable OP_CAT upgrades, which could support Layer-2 scaling solutions, reaching thousands of transactions per second. This would allow Bitcoin not only to be a “savings jar” but also a real payment network. DeFi applications could explode on Bitcoin, competing with Ethereum.

More institutional products emerging. After spot ETFs, there will be Bitcoin futures ETFs, options, trusts, and other innovative financial products. Each new product is a new entry point.

Supply pressure continues. Bitcoin’s total supply is fixed at 21 million. Currently, nearly 19 million are in circulation. The reward halving every four years makes new supply scarcer; the next halving in 2028 will further tighten supply. Meanwhile, institutional holdings are increasing (BlackRock, MicroStrategy, governments). Reduced supply + increased demand = upward price pressure.

How to prepare for the next bull market?

If you believe a bull run is coming, what should you do now?

Step 1: Understand what Bitcoin is. Not everyone grasps Bitcoin’s underlying logic. Study its technical principles, economic model, and historical cycles. This way, you won’t be scared by short-term volatility.

Step 2: Develop a clear strategy. Are you a long-term holder or a trader? How much volatility can you tolerate? Will 20% swings keep you awake? If yes, then high leverage trading is not suitable.

Step 3: Choose secure trading channels. If you don’t want to manage your wallet, just buy ETFs. If you choose an exchange, verify its security audit reports, enable two-factor authentication, and don’t leave large funds on the exchange.

Step 4: Keep learning about the market. Follow major news: upcoming halving dates, new policies, significant technical upgrades. These are key variables influencing Bitcoin’s price.

Step 5: Manage risk and avoid all-in. Even if you’re very bullish on Bitcoin, maintain a diversified portfolio. If Bitcoin hits $150,000 but the overall economy crashes, holding other assets can provide insurance.

Final words

Bitcoin’s history tells us: Every bull market does not appear out of nowhere; each has clear catalysts. 2013 was about novelty, 2017 about retail enthusiasm, 2021 about institutional recognition, and 2024 about institutionalization.

What will be the next catalyst? No one can be 100% sure, but based on current signs, government adoption and technological upgrades are the most likely directions.

Bitcoin’s current price is $87,220, leaving room compared to its all-time high of $126,080. History shows that when all signals point in the same direction, the market often exceeds expectations.

But remember: Knowing the pattern and executing it correctly are two different things. Most people lose money not because they don’t know the rules, but because they know the rules yet do the opposite at critical moments. Controlling emotions, sticking to the plan—that’s the real secret to profiting from Bitcoin cycles.