Recently, the market has been tense and cautious. Ethereum has been oscillating around the $2900 level, with bulls and bears locked in a difficult struggle. What’s more concerning is that ETH is flowing out of exchanges — in the past 24 hours alone, net outflows reached 43,800 coins, equivalent to over $130 million. Many retail investors are quite frightened, rushing to sell at the sight of falling numbers, not realizing that there may be large players quietly positioning behind the scenes.

There is now much discussion in the community: if the $2900 support fails, will ETH enter a new downtrend? This question seems simple, but the answer is more complicated than it appears.

Why is the $2900 level so critical? From a technical perspective, it’s not just an ordinary price point. Since the rebound began in the second half of last year, this level has served as a guardian of the medium-term upward trendline. Moreover, several previous pullbacks stopped around this area. Every time ETH touches $2900, a wave of bottom-fishing capital rushes in, causing the price to rebound quickly — creating a strong psychological reinforcement in the market.

But psychological support is fragile. Once this support level is truly broken, bullish confidence can collapse in an instant. Currently, a large number of retail long positions are stacked between $2900 and $3000, with stop-losses generally set around $2880 to $2900. Imagine if these stop-loss orders are triggered — like a row of dominoes falling one after another — it would accelerate the price decline.

That’s not all. The outflow of tokens from exchanges itself creates pressure, and combined with potential technical breakdowns, these forces collide and make the situation more complex. The ETH flowing out of exchanges indicates that many are preparing or have already prepared to transfer risk. During such times, market panic often amplifies itself.

What should you do now? The key still depends on the flow of withdrawals from exchanges and the true intentions of large players. Although net outflows seem dangerous, sometimes this can be a smokescreen for short-sellers. How long the $2900 support can hold will determine the short-term trend. If it holds, the rebound could be fierce; if it breaks, a chain reaction may follow. Currently, the market is essentially betting on this critical point — bulls betting on a rebound, bears waiting for a breakdown.