Novogratz's failed predictions and the reality of Bitcoin in 2025

SelfCustodyIssues · 2025-12-26T19:25:50+00:00

Mike Novogratz admits his price predictions for Bitcoin have missed the mark, now trading around $87,350. He describes the current market as a "cortisol phase" marked by anxiety and volatility, with a critical point at $100,000 that could trigger a bullish trend. Despite misestimations, he remains optimistic about the long-term potential of the crypto ecosystem.

SelfCustodyIssues

2025-12-26 19:25:50

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Mike Novogratz has just publicly acknowledged that his price estimates did not turn out as expected. The $150,000 target for 2025 was left behind, and BTC is currently trading around $87,350, quite far from what was promised.

The “cortisol phase” of the market: pure anxiety

The veteran investor now describes the current environment as a “cortisol” stage—basically, a market full of nervousness and pessimism. It is the opposite of the “testosterone” euphoria that characterized previous bullish movements. The October correction was a significant blow that halted the momentum, leaving Bitcoin trapped in a sideways range filled with volatility.

Can it break $100,000 or will it remain in limbo?

The critical point is at $100,000. If BTC manages to break this level, it could trigger a more consistent bullish movement. However, there is a problem: bullish options traders are pushing the price downward, acting as an invisible ceiling. It’s a battle between bulls and bears that keeps the market tense.

Beyond price predictions

Despite the error in his price forecasts, Novogratz remains optimistic about the crypto ecosystem. He sees significant potential in emerging banking infrastructure and in the entire tokenization movement. These are long-term trends that go beyond short-term speculative price movements.

The message is clear: numbers may fail, but the underlying technology continues to advance.

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