The XRP dynamics in 2025: Will it replicate the 2016 price action with a 69% drop before takeoff?

The price action of XRP is tracing a path that significantly resembles what happened nearly a decade ago. Currently trading at $1.85 and down 1.49% in the last 24 hours, technical analysts have begun mapping scenarios based on historical patterns that could define the rest of the cycle.

The ABC pattern that fuels speculation

XRP’s price is in a consolidation phase that experts interpret as the beginning of a corrective structure similar to 2016. Since reaching a peak of $3.65 in July, the coin has retraced 44%, establishing the first signs of this amplified correction. The ABC formation observed in the charts points to deeper movements in the short term.

Downward and recovery scenarios

According to the price action analysis, there is a possibility that XRP could test levels below $1 during the first months of 2026, representing a potential 69% drop from recent highs. This retracement would complete the correction that many traders are closely monitoring.

However, historically after significant drops in XRP, recoveries of similar or greater scale have followed. The most aggressive bullish scenario projects a potential rebound of 110,000%, bringing the price toward the $27 in the medium term. This level would represent an important confluence between technical targets and the cryptocurrency’s historical cycles.

Current market context

The current dynamics keep XRP at a crossroads: short-term bearish pressure coexists with signs of accumulation typically associated with subsequent bullish movements. Deep retracements like those projected in this analysis are often the preliminary step before structural trend changes in this asset.