The gap between gold and bitcoin widens: Why isn't the "digital asset" responding as expected?

As gold breaks all-time highs driven by expected rate cuts and geopolitical turbulence, bitcoin remains battered by macroeconomic volatility and market positioning, questioning its role as an alternative store of value.

The reality no one wanted to admit

Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish outlook on gold, projecting prices close to $4,900 per ounce in 2026 under its base scenario. But while Wall Street analysts chart optimistic graphs for precious metals, bitcoin continues to be whipsawed by macroeconomic forces that, in theory, it should resist better.

The numbers speak for themselves: gold has gained more than 70% this year, while silver has risen approximately 150%, with both metals on track to record their best annual performances since 1979. Platinum has also reached record highs. Meanwhile, bitcoin struggles to maintain key psychological levels, exposing the divergence that many institutional investors preferred not to acknowledge.

Two assets, two very different stories

“Gold has had a record year, rising more than 60%. But so has bitcoin. You still have this situation where it’s clearly not digital gold,” said David Miller, investment director at Catalyst Funds and manager of the Strategy Shares Gold Enhanced Yield ETF.

The reason behind this disconnect is deeper than simple price fluctuations. Gold is revalued thanks to expectations of rate cuts and increasing geopolitical volatility, functioning as a proven institutional refuge. Bitcoin, on the other hand, remains sensitive to the same risk cycles affecting stocks and other volatile assets, failing to establish itself as a true reserve alternative.

The weight of positioning and macro

Part of the drag holding back bitcoin lies in the market’s digestion after a prolonged period of leveraged trading. Each rebound has been quickly followed by profit-taking, generating a whipsaw dynamic that discourages sustained accumulation.

Adding to this is macroeconomic uncertainty. Bond yields have been volatile, the dollar has fluctuated sharply, and markets have alternated between bullish momentum and capital preservation. Under these conditions, gold captures institutional flows more efficiently than cryptocurrencies.

“What gold does—and that bitcoin definitely cannot—is serve as a real alternative reserve asset for a currency,” Miller explained. “Bitcoin is really a retail consumption game, while gold is very institutional.”

Sustained institutional accumulation in gold

Data from the World Gold Council reveal that holdings in gold-backed ETFs increased in every month of 2025 except May, indicating constant and deliberate accumulation. The State Street SPDR Gold Trust, the largest gold ETF in the market, has seen its holdings grow by more than 20% during the year.

This institutional movement contrasts with the volatility experienced by bitcoin, where leveraged positions and short-term trading dominate capital flow.

Can bitcoin recover?

Miller warns that bitcoin can still play a role in long-term portfolios as a hedge against fiscal expansion and monetary devaluation. However, he recognizes that gold is already consolidated in the reserves of global central banks, conferring it with an institutional credibility that bitcoin still needs to build.

The debate that the crypto industry never resolved remains unanswered: if bitcoin is truly “digital gold,” why does it behave so differently during crises? While Goldman Sachs projects new highs for gold in 2026, bitcoin continues to be whipsawed by the same macroeconomic winds it should, in theory, resist.