Solana's decline since January: mass distribution or memecoin effect?

The price of Solana has experienced a significant correction in recent months, recording a loss of 58.6% since January 2025 and currently trading around $122.04. According to market analysts, this movement is no coincidence but the result of multiple factors converging simultaneously.

The Early Distribution Factor

Several months ago, before SOL reached its all-time high of $293, large token holders were already making strategic exits. Analyst Ardi identified this distribution trend as a key indicator of the selling pressure we see today. While institutional holders and mid-sized wallets reduce their exposure on the network, retail activity remains relatively stable, suggesting that deleveraging mainly comes from the big players.

The Memecoin Effect on the Ecosystem

Meanwhile, the proliferation of memecoins on the Solana chain has generated complex market dynamics. The launch of the $TRUMP token in January coincided with the start of the correction, demonstrating how these speculative assets can divert capital from the main ecosystem. Interestingly, recent declines in memecoins have been synchronized with Solana’s bearish movements, creating a cascade effect where volatility reinforces among assets.

What Does On-Chain Activity Tell Us?

Network data reveal contradictory patterns: while retail investors remain active, larger wallets show position reductions. This divergence suggests we are in a redistribution phase where small speculators buy what sophisticated investors sell.

With SOL showing an accumulated decline of -38.21% over the past year, the key question is whether this correction marks the end of a cycle or a consolidation phase before a new bullish move.