The 2025 Bitcoin Rally: Why the Halving Cycle Still Matters

History Repeats, or at Least Rhymes

The pattern is undeniable. Every significant bull run since the 2013 cycle has coincided with Bitcoin’s halving event—2017 and 2021 followed the same playbook. While markets rarely move in identical ways, the structural catalysts remain similar. The halving mechanism artificially reduces supply growth, and when paired with broader adoption trends, it has historically triggered substantial upside moves.

Missing the Window: A Costly Mistake

Market participants holding out for a drop to $8,000 or $10,000 levels may be playing a dangerous game in 2025. Those convinced a bull market won’t materialize this year—or betting the real rally waits until 2026—risk sitting on the sidelines during a critical accumulation phase. This is not even a controversial take among long-term investors anymore; it’s increasingly the baseline expectation. Waiting for the “perfect entry” often means missing the move entirely.

The Institutional Catalyst

Unlike previous cycles, 2025 benefits from a new accelerant: Bitcoin ETF products gaining regulatory approval. This development opens the floodgates for traditional asset managers, pension funds, and corporate treasuries to enter the market at scale. The inflow magnitude dwarfs anything we saw in the previous cycle. When billions in passive capital searches for exposure, price discovery moves upward.

The Case for Conviction

Yes, this is a personal thesis. Others are free to disagree. But positioning based on historical precedent—reduced supply, regulatory tailwinds, and institutional demand—suggests the odds favor bulls in 2025. Those who act on this thesis typically look back with satisfaction. Those who don’t usually don’t.