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Betting Markets Fuel Speculation on El Salvador's $1B Bitcoin Milestone
El Salvador’s ambitious crypto strategy continues to captivate prediction market traders. President Nayib Bukele recently spotlighted Kalshi’s betting platform, where market participants are increasingly confident the nation could accumulate $1 billion worth of Bitcoin before year-end 2025. The volatility in these forecasts reveals the market’s uncertainty: Kalshi’s odds of hitting the billion-dollar target before November climbed from 18% to 38% in recent weeks, only to retreat to 27%, while rival platform Polymarket pegged the December deadline probability at 43%.
What makes this betting activity noteworthy is the contrast between official policy and actual behavior. El Salvador publicly committed to halting Bitcoin purchases after securing a $1.4 billion IMF loan package, yet Bukele and the country’s Bitcoin Office have consistently announced new acquisitions. Currently, El Salvador’s crypto holdings stand at 6,282 Bitcoins, valued at approximately $709 million at recent market prices.
The gap between El Salvador’s current position and the $1 billion threshold narrows as Bitcoin price momentum strengthens. With BTC trading near $87.62K, the nation sits roughly $291 million away from crossing the psychological milestone—an attainable target if holdings remain stable or Bitcoin appreciates further. Prediction markets suggest the betting community sees genuine probability in this outcome, reflecting broader confidence in El Salvador’s long-term crypto positioning despite the apparent policy inconsistency with international lenders.