This Week's Economic Calendar: FOMC Meeting Minutes and Critical Inflation Data Expected to Shape Market Direction

What’s on the agenda this week

Markets are bracing for a critical week of economic releases that could significantly impact monetary policy expectations. The focus centers on inflation readings and Federal Reserve communications, with FOMC meeting minutes and officials’ commentary providing additional context for future rate decisions.

Data releases to watch

The most anticipated report arrives on August 12, when the U.S. July CPI year-on-year figures will be released. This inflation gauge remains crucial for understanding price pressures across the economy. Following closely on August 14 is the U.S. July PPI year-on-year reading, which measures producer-level inflation and often precedes consumer-level changes.

Initial jobless claims for the week ending August 9 will also be reported on August 14, offering fresh perspective on labor market strength. The previous week’s jobless claims came in at 226,000 against expectations of 221,000, with prior data revised to 219,000—suggesting modest labor market resilience despite broader economic concerns.

Central bank communications and policy signals

The week features remarks from two key FOMC voting members. Chicago Federal Reserve President Goolsbee addresses monetary policy considerations on August 14, while Atlanta Federal Reserve President Bostic discusses the economic outlook later that same day. These communications often provide hints about rate path expectations beyond formal FOMC meeting minutes.

Meanwhile, international central banks continue signaling policy shifts. The Bank of England concluded its fifth rate cut of the current cycle on Thursday at 25 basis points, though the monetary committee required two voting rounds to reach consensus. Officials acknowledged rising inflation risks even as they acknowledged sluggish economic growth and consumer spending pressures. The Bank of Japan’s July minutes suggested rate hikes may resume by year-end, indicating diverging policy paths globally.

Additional factors in focus

China’s July M2 money supply data arrives on August 11, providing insight into liquidity conditions. Separately, Trump administration tariff implementation on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals is expected “around this week,” adding trade policy uncertainty to the economic outlook.

The convergence of inflation data, central bank communications, and policy announcements creates a complex landscape for investors monitoring both traditional markets and crypto asset valuations.