Bull vs Bear: Why Crypto's Four-Year Cycle Still Matters More Than You Think

The crypto market often plays tricks on our perception. Bitcoin sits at $87.50K (down 0.50% in 24h), Ethereum trades at $2.93K (down 0.70%), yet the underlying four-year cycle continues to unfold with remarkable precision. The correlation between Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins reveals a pattern that separates the winners from the noise-chasers.

Timing Beats Price: The Critical Windows

Time matters more than entry points—this is the foundation of Gann theory and wave analysis. Mark these dates on your calendar:

• Q3 2025 (September 5-15): Early accumulation signals begin
• Q4 2025 (October-December): Major transition window
• 2026 (September-December): The make-or-break period
• 2028-2030: The next macro cycle peak

These aren’t random forecasts. They’re derived from cycle analysis that has proven across multiple market regimes.

Bitcoin’s Hidden Pattern: Why the Boundaries Blurred

Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is alive, but it evolved. Once Bitcoin became correlated with macro assets, the cycle’s traditional sharp boundaries softened into something more complex—what analysts call a “super cycle” structure.

Currently, Bitcoin navigates the tail end of Super Cycle 3-4-Z wave (the decline phase). The real inflection happens when Super Cycle 3-5 begins, which could start as early as September 5-11, 2025, but the explosive move won’t materialize until mid-September 2025.

The roadmap looks like this:

• Super Cycle 3-5 wave target: November-December 2025 (won’t bottom before October)
• Super Cycle 4 wave arrival: September or December 2026
• Super Cycle 4 downside: 74,500 (extremes: 55,700-66,700)
• Super Cycle 5 wave target: November-December 2028-2030, reaching 190,000-225,000

At current levels ($87.50K), Bitcoin sits in that critical pre-explosion zone.

Ethereum’s Micro-Cycle: The Small Bull Hidden in the Macro Bear

Ethereum presents a fascinating paradox: it’s trapped in a macro bear market (Super Cycle 1-4 wave), yet it’s currently executing a localized small bull within that bear phase.

Short-term structure (completed wave count):

• Current resistance zone: 4,280-4,320 (monthly Bollinger upper band)
• Extreme target (if broken): 4,485-4,818
• Absolute ceiling: 5,183

The longer narrative is more complex:

Ethereum’s Super Cycle 1-4-XX wave represents a contained bull market within a broader bear. We’re either at the end of the A-wave or start of the B-wave. The A-wave targets 4,071-4,100 (already touched) or the 4,280-4,320 zone—potentially explosive to 4,485-4,817.

Then comes the B-wave pullback: expect 2,400-2,500 or deeper to 2,900-3,000.

The C-wave (the real event) ignites between September 5-11, 2025, with explosive upside around September 15, 2025. C-wave targets: 4,850-5,000-5,540-6,000.

This small bull could last until November-December 2025 (won’t conclude before October at earliest).

After this cycle completes, Ethereum enters Super Cycle 1-4-Z wave decline, targeting 2,200-2,780-2,850-3,000 by September or December 2026.

The bigger picture: The entire Super Cycle 1-4 bear market concludes when this pattern finishes, finally paving the way for Super Cycle 1-5, the last bull wave of the cycle, targeting 6,000-8,000-9,000 in November-December 2028-2030.

Altcoins: The Brutal Truth About Market Cap Tiers

Here’s what separates winners from bagholders—most traders evaluate altcoins through Bitcoin or Ethereum’s lens. That’s the first mistake.

Altcoins require independent analysis using three key market-cap-tier charts. Let’s decode each:

Tier 1: Top 50 Market Cap Altcoins

This cohort remains in a bear market that started March 2024. The pattern shows:

• April-August 2025: First small bull (internal structure not a driving wave, so decline follows)
• September-October 2025: Second small bull (possible without new lows, sideways consolidation)
• January-March 2026: Bear-to-bull transition begins
• December 2025 or January-March 2026: Historical low point
• September-December 2026: Second capitulation low—this marks the real bull market start

Tier 2: Market Cap Rank 51-100

Small-cap altcoins follow a similar trajectory but with weaker rally structures. The September 2026-December 2026 bottom is still the key inflection, but volatility is sharper and drawdowns deeper. Only venture into this tier if you can stomach uncertainty; top 50 offerings provide better risk-reward.

Tier 3: Beyond Market Cap 100

Micro-cap altcoins tell the most painful story. Many haven’t recovered since the 2021 collapse, enduring a bear market that started late 2021—not just 2024.

These ultra-low-cap tokens don’t participate meaningfully in small bulls. Most decline alongside the broader market, with relief rallies confined to consolidation zones.

The harsh verdict: Avoid micro-caps during small bull phases. The downside outpaces the upside, and most don’t follow rallies—they follow declines.

The Strategic Playbook for Different Market Conditions

September-October 2025 (Second Small Bull):

• Safe choice: Top 50 market cap altcoins
• Moderate risk: Top 50-100 market cap
• Avoid: Anything beyond top 100

December 2025-January 2026 (Third Small Bull Potential):

• Same tier allocation applies
• Position sizing lighter—uncertainty elevated

September-December 2026 (The Real Accumulation Window): This is when smart money emerges. The bear-to-bull transition officially begins. This is when you allocate across:

• Bitcoin and Ethereum (the anchors)
• Top 50 altcoins (highest probability recovery)
• Top 50-100 (moderate allocation)
• Beyond 100 (minimal, high-conviction only)

Building Your Edge: Knowledge > Emotion

Most traders lose because they operate without a framework. This analysis combines wave theory, Gann cycles, Wyckoff accumulation patterns, and Chan theory—not as separate tools, but as an integrated system for reading market structure.

The goal isn’t to time every tick. It’s to identify the major inflection points (like September 2026) and position accordingly.

During bear markets, accumulation beats analysis. Learn the frameworks. Build independent thinking. Transform external knowledge into internal conviction. When you do this, you stop chasing other people’s losses and start capturing the cycle’s greatest opportunities.

The path to consistent profits isn’t complicated—it’s just uncomfortable, because it requires doing nothing when others panic and everything when others sleep.

Note: Market analysis requires continuous learning and risk management discipline. Always maintain position sizing and stop-loss protocols. Technical analysis improves with experience; act accordingly.