ETH Breaks Through Critical Resistance Level at 4640—Will 4800 Be Within Reach?

The cryptocurrency market witnessed a dramatic shift last night as Ethereum climbed sharply following the release of U.S. CPI data. ETH surged from 4405 to 4604 in just one hour—a 200-dollar rally that has left traders wondering: Can this momentum sustain, or is it merely a temporary spike? Let’s break down what’s really happening beneath the surface.

The News Catalyst: Inflation’s Cooling Signal Is Real

Yesterday evening at 20:30, the U.S. July unadjusted CPI data came in at 2.7%, marking a 0.1% decline from the previous reading of 2.8%. While this met market expectations, it signaled something crucial: U.S. inflation has cooled for the second consecutive month. For the Federal Reserve, fighting inflation is paramount, so this downward trend opens the door for investors to speculate on slower rate hikes—or even potential rate cuts down the road. Money naturally redistributes from traditional banking sectors toward equities and digital assets. ETH, as the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, rode this wave alongside Bitcoin, rallying from 4405 to 4604. However, subsequent crude oil import data delivered a slightly bearish surprise, causing oil prices to dip and pulling ETH back down. This pullback, however, appears more like healthy profit-taking than capitulation—after all, a 200-dollar surge in an hour naturally attracts some quick sellers looking to lock in gains.

Technical Foundation: Reading the Charts

Current Price Action

According to the latest data, ETH is currently trading near 2.93K (note: this represents a longer-term reference point), and on the hourly timeframe, the price sits at 4592, hovering just below the critical resistance level of 4640. Understanding the support line and resistance level structure is essential here:

Resistance Levels:

• Primary resistance: 4640 (current battle zone)
• Secondary target: 4800 (if 4640 breaks decisively)

Support Line Structure:

• First support line: 4435
• Second support line: 4165

Indicator Confirmation

The technical setup shows several bullish signals: MACD’s DIF line has crossed above the DEA line, forming a golden cross with expanding red bars—a textbook “strong bullish momentum” signal. Trading volume spiked noticeably during the earlier rally, confirming that institutional capital is participating, not artificial pumping. With ETH positioned just 50 dollars below 4640, a clean breakout through this resistance level would open a clear path to 4800.

The Critical Question: Can We Reach 4800 Tonight?

The honest answer: There’s a solid probability, but it requires alignment of multiple factors.

Bullish Case:

• The CPI cooling is a genuine fundamental shift, not mere sentiment
• Federal Reserve officials’ upcoming statements will be crucial—any dovish commentary could fuel further upside
• European economic data incoming could add additional tailwinds
• The support line structure below (4435 and 4165) remains intact, providing a safety net

Technical Breakout Requirements:

• ETH must convincingly clear the 4640 resistance level
• Volume must expand significantly—ideally matching or exceeding yesterday’s surge volume
• Failure to break above 4640 would necessitate a consolidation period of 1-2 days before the next attempt

Practical Trading Guidance

For traders approaching this scenario:

Aggressive Entry Strategy: Wait for a decisive close above the 4640 resistance level before adding positions. Set a stop loss at 4580 to limit downside risk. If that level breaks, exit and reassess.

Accumulation Strategy: Traders seeking a lower-risk entry can gradually build positions near the 4435 support line, targeting the 4640 resistance level first. Only scale up further if the breakout through 4640 succeeds.

Risk Management: If you’re carrying substantial positions, consider reducing exposure near 4640. Lock in profits rather than betting everything on one direction. The crypto market rewards nimbleness over stubbornness.

The Bottom Line

ETH sits at a pivotal juncture. The fundamental backdrop (cooling inflation) supports upside, and the technical setup (golden cross, volume confirmation, intact support lines) looks encouraging. However, 4800 isn’t guaranteed—it depends on whether we can break through 4640 convincingly on strong volume. Between 4435 and 4640, ETH remains in a relatively safe trading range with low probability of sharp downside.

Watch the 4640 resistance level closely tonight. A breakout deserves participation; a failure demands patience. The best traders earn steady returns by respecting technical structure and avoiding overconfidence. Follow the signals, manage your risk, and remember: there are no certainties in crypto, only probabilities and disciplined execution.

What’s your take—do you expect 4800 to be tested, or will we see consolidation first? The charts will tell us soon enough.