As the year comes to an end, the crypto market has accumulated experience through a year's worth of ups and downs. The market itself is cyclical; volatility is a form of training, and perseverance is accumulation.

From a macro perspective, the Federal Reserve's December minutes sent mixed signals. Officials acknowledged the rationale for rate cuts, but opinions diverged on the timing and magnitude of such cuts. Currently, the market generally expects interest rates to remain unchanged in January. More importantly, the Fed's initiation of a short-term government bond purchase program suggests that liquidity may become more relaxed over the next year, providing potential support for crypto assets.

On the technical side, the current market is caught between two forces: first, resistance from above; second, the end-of-year liquidity fatigue. Bullish rebounds often turn out to be false signals, and the overall pattern remains weak consolidation, with no signs of trend reversal. Specifically, Bitcoin must hold the support zone of 86000-86500; if it breaks below, the next line of defense is around 84000. Ethereum needs to defend the 2880-2900 critical support line; if lost, 2800 is within reach.

Before institutions start returning on January 2, the market is likely to exhibit low volatility and high sensitivity—any small movement could trigger reactions, but major moves have yet to come. To achieve a trend reversal, either break through resistance with increased volume (Bitcoin aiming for 90000, Ethereum reaching 3050), or see a daily reversal candlestick at the support level indicating a stop in decline.

Until clear signals emerge, the core trading logic is absolute defense. Reduce trading frequency, control position sizes and leverage, precisely set stop-loss and take-profit levels, and resolutely avoid contrarian fighting.

The 2025 market has already concluded; this year's volatility was a market self-correction, and every experience has turned into wealth. As we enter 2026, we hope to remain rational and steadfast, patiently waiting for the moment when the clouds part and the market reveals its clear path.