Have we reached the end of December? A single concept begins to circulate in the markets

Santa Rally (Noel Baba Rallisi) What is it?

Santa Rally; is defined as a seasonal tendency where investor psychology and year-end position adjustments are reflected in prices during the last week of the year and the first days of January.

But an important point: this is not a rule, but a statistical and behavioral trend — meaning it is not guaranteed to happen every year, but it is on investors’ radar because it has been repeated frequently in the past.

📈 1) Stocks (Stock Market)

• The origin of the Santa Rally comes from the stock market world, and positive returns during this period have been observed for many years in major indices like the S&P 500.
• Since 1950, during this 7-day period, the S&P 500 has tended to perform positively with an average increase of about ~%1.3 annually, with these gains occurring approximately 3/4 of the time.

This short period, combined with behavioral effects such as year-end position adjustments, low-volume holiday markets, and optimism at the start of the year, can push stocks upward.

📉 2) Cryptocurrencies

Although crypto markets now follow the Santa Rally concept, they may not always operate like traditional stock markets.
Crypto assets are more volatile; trading volumes decrease during holiday periods, which can lead to faster price movements.

Let’s look at past data:

• 2019 → 2020
Bitcoin closed the year at around $7,200.
It rose to $9,300 in early January.
A rally of about 29% occurred.

• 2020 → 2021
The psychological resistance of $20,000 was broken.
In January, the price extended to $40,000.
This was one of the strongest examples of a Santa Rally in the crypto market (%38).

• 2022 → 2023
After the crypto winter following FTX,
the movement starting around $16,500 rose above $23,000 in January.
A sharp recovery of about 39% was observed.

• 2021 → 2022
The Fed’s tight monetary policy and interest rate hikes dominated.
The Santa Rally expectation did not materialize.
Bitcoin retreated by about -10% in January.

📌 This table shows us one clear thing:
Santa Rally does not happen every year.
But in the years it occurs, its impact is generally not underestimated.

🪙 3) Gold & Silver (Precious Metals)

Precious metals like gold and silver can also show remarkable performance during the year-end period.
As of 2025, gold and silver prices approached all-time highs — especially silver, which showed a very strong percentage increase.

This situation is usually influenced by:

✔️ Expectations of interest rate cuts,
✔️ Dollar weakness,
✔️ Geopolitical risks, and
✔️ Safe haven demand

macro factors.

Gold and silver can move in the same direction as stocks — especially during risk-off periods — and can perform strongly independently of them. Therefore, demand for precious metals may also increase during the “Santa Rally” period.

Why Do Different Assets React Differently?

📌 Stock Markets: Can be positive in the short term due to behavioral and seasonal effects.
📌 Cryptocurrencies: More volatile, riskier, and more affected by low liquidity.
📌 Gold & Silver: Can show a separate rally due to “safe haven” demand during macro uncertainties.

In other words, Santa Rally is not just a “calendar season”; it is a complex effect that combines market behavior, liquidity, and macro expectations.

Summary

Santa Rally can be observed across many asset classes — but:

🔹 Stocks tend to show positive performance trends most years historically.
🔹 Cryptocurrencies also follow this expectation, but their behavior is more volatile and more tied to macro factors.
🔹 Gold and silver can especially rally during periods of uncertainty.

Santa Rally is not a “gift”; it is a seasonal behavioral trend. When making investment decisions, it is best to interpret this not as a standalone signal but together with volume, trend, and macro conditions.