Livestock Futures Surge Ahead of Key Cattle Inventory Data Release

TestnetNomad · 2025-12-31T15:15:05+00:00

Cattle markets are experiencing bullish momentum ahead of the Cattle on Feed report, with significant gains in live and feeder cattle futures. The cash market shows selective pricing, while wholesale beef prices reflect mixed trends. Slaughter activities are down year-over-year, reinforcing positive trader sentiment before the report, which expects reduced placements and inventories.

TestnetNomad

2025-12-31 15:15:05

Abstract generation in progress

Bullish momentum is sweeping through cattle markets as traders position ahead of today’s Cattle on Feed report. Live cattle futures posted impressive gains, with December contracts climbing $2.25 to $230.675, while February and April contracts advanced $2.675 and $2.175 respectively. Feeder cattle futures matched this enthusiasm, with January delivery up $6.10 at $346.375, followed by March and April contracts gaining $5.50 and $5.10.

Cash Market Signals and Pricing Dynamics

The physical cattle market showed early momentum Thursday with selective sales occurring at $228 across multiple regions and $356-358 price points. Friday’s Fed Cattle Exchange online auction reflected cautious bidding, with $227-228 quotations on 1,708 head offered but no transactions clearing. The CME feeder cattle index strengthened to $350.05 on December 17, up 26 cents from the previous session, signaling underlying support for cow feed-related production costs and market fundamentals.

Wholesale Beef Prices Show Mixed Signals

USDA wholesale beef values displayed conflicting directional moves Friday morning. Choice grade boxes rallied $3.61 to $360.89, while Select boxes retreated $3.57 to $347.54, widening the Choice/Select spread to $13.35. These price disparities reflect shifting demand and production patterns across different cattle quality segments.

Slaughter Activity Trails Year-Over-Year Comparisons

Federally inspected cattle slaughter reached 123,000 head Thursday, bringing the weekly total to 472,000. This represented a 12,000 head decline from the previous week and fell 11,643 head short of last year’s comparable period—a notable year-over-year reduction that supports the bullish narrative.

Market Expectations and Report Preview

Today’s Cattle on Feed report will test trader convictions, with consensus expecting November placements down 8% year-over-year and marketings declining 11.3%. December 1 on-feed inventory is anticipated 1.6% below prior-year levels. These anticipated metrics have already begun pricing into futures, creating the current rally before official USDA confirmation.

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