Market Overview: The total cryptocurrency market capitalization approaches **$3.04 trillion**.

### 📈 Short-term Market Outlook
**Technical Signal Divergence**: Bitcoin futures technical analysis indicates the market is in a **“neutral”** state, with short-term moving averages showing a sell signal, but some technical indicators (like MACD) suggest a buy signal.
**Institutional Expectations for January Rebound**: Several analyses believe that, despite the ongoing downtrend, the market is **likely to turn upward** in January. Catalysts may include quarterly portfolio rebalancing and inflows into Bitcoin ETFs.

### ⚖️ Key Factors Influencing Market Outlook
**1. Macro Liquidity Dynamics**
The market is at a critical juncture: on one hand, if stubborn inflation leads the Federal Reserve to pause rate cuts in early 2026, Bitcoin could be pressured to test the **$70,000** support level. On the other hand, the Fed has initiated monthly **approximately $40 billion** in “Reserve Management Purchases”(RMP), injecting liquidity into the market, which is seen as an important **downside buffer**.

**2. Regulatory and Major Event Schedule**
* **Q1 2026**: The EU DAC8 tax reporting rules have come into effect, and US fiscal issues may exert pressure.
* **Subsequent Quarters**: Events such as the Federal Reserve Chair transition, full implementation of MiCA regulations in the EU, US midterm elections, and Mt. Gox Bitcoin compensation (involving about **34,689 BTC**) will occur.

### 💡 Institutional Views and Strategy References
* **Bitcoin**: Standard Chartered has lowered its 2026 target price to **$150,000**. Analysts predict that if liquidity improves, prices could oscillate upward to the $92,000–$98,000 range.
* **Ethereum**: Some analysts remain bullish based on “short squeeze” logic. They forecast prices testing **$3,200–$3,300** in January, with some views suggesting potential for $3,600 driven by ecosystem development.
* **Other Assets**: **Solana (SOL)** and new projects like **Mutuum Finance (MUTM)** are also considered noteworthy for January by some market observers.

Overall, today’s market consolidates near key levels, with January’s trend expected to evolve under the combined influence of **macro liquidity** and **busy event schedule**. Investor sentiment remains cautious, but technical rebound expectations and long-term structural factors (such as spot ETF capital flows) provide support to the market.
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