What do gold and silver imply? How does Tom Lee use commodities to predict digital assets in 2026

End of the year, Wall Street heavyweight Tom Lee shared an interesting perspective on social media: the trends in gold and silver are signaling the outlook for digital assets in 2026. Silver has shown a parabolic trend over the past month, while gold has exhibited a parabolic trend over the past year, and these major commodity markets often lead the cryptocurrency market. Implicitly, this suggests not to be skeptical about the prospects of BTC and ETH in 2026.

Can commodities really predict cryptocurrencies?

Market Leading Indicator Logic

Tom Lee’s analysis is based on a classic market observation: commodity prices often reflect macroeconomic expectations, which eventually influence risk assets. As a safe-haven asset, gold’s price movements typically embody market expectations about economic outlooks and monetary policy. When gold and silver both show parabolic rises, it indicates the market is pricing in an optimistic economic outlook or expectations of liquidity easing.

According to the latest data, ETH is currently priced at $2974.77, up 6.41% over the past 30 days. Although this increase doesn’t seem particularly remarkable, it has been achieved amid year-end tax-loss selling and institutional exits.

Confidence from Actions

What more clearly demonstrates confidence is Tom Lee’s own actions. BitMine (Ethereum treasury company) has been continuously purchasing large amounts of ETH in recent days. Latest data shows BitMine holds about 4.12 million ETH, worth approximately $12.24 billion, accounting for 3.4% of the total ETH supply. This is not just talk; it’s real investment.

If we look at BitMine’s target holdings, according to information, they plan to increase their position to 4% of ETH supply, which means buying an additional roughly $2.2 billion worth of ETH. Such institutional activity is usually not short-term speculation but based on confidence in long-term prospects.

The outlook may seem bleak now, but the background is key

Why the market is weak at year-end

The current market is indeed under pressure. As the year-end holidays approach, institutional investors are exiting in large numbers, leading to decreased market liquidity. Meanwhile, new regulations from the US tax authorities are also exerting pressure. Starting in 2026, US exchanges will be required to report users’ trading records to the IRS, prompting many retail investors to sell for tax reasons at year-end.

This seasonal pattern is most evident from December 26 to 30. In the past 24 hours, the entire network experienced liquidations of $250 million, with longs contributing $205 million. But the key point is that, amid this panic, BitMine has been increasing its holdings.

Multi-dimensional Market Background

Tom Lee’s specific expectations for 2026

Price targets

According to information, Tom Lee told CNBC his specific price expectations:

• ETH short-term target: Reach $7000-$9000 in early 2026
• ETH long-term target: $20,000
• BTC target: Recover to $200,000 next year

These expectations are based on Wall Street’s accelerated push for asset tokenization. Tom Lee believes that as traditional finance embraces cryptocurrencies and expands application scenarios, a revaluation of these assets is inevitable.

Logic behind the expectations

Currently, ETH is priced at $2974.77. Reaching $7000-$9000 implies a 2.4-3x increase. This is not astronomical nor impossible. Considering the ongoing institutional inflows and expanding use cases, this expectation has its rational basis.

Overall outlook for 2026

From the trends in commodities, institutional actions, and policy background, Tom Lee’s view is not unfounded. The movements in gold and silver may indeed signal macroeconomic improvement, which is generally positive for risk assets.

Year-end weakness is not a long-term trend but a seasonal feature. Once the New Year holidays end, institutions re-enter, tax-loss selling pressure eases, and the market may enter a new rhythm. BitMine’s continued accumulation indicates that farsighted institutional investors are already preparing for this moment.

Summary

Commodity trends as leading market indicators are indeed worth paying attention to. Tom Lee’s forecast for digital assets in 2026, based on this observation, is corroborated by his own actions. The current market weakness mainly stems from seasonal factors at year-end rather than fundamental deterioration. Whether ETH and BTC can reach their target prices depends on the recovery of market liquidity and institutional funding in early 2026. The current dip may be paving the way for subsequent rises.