ETF data shows conflicting signals: a 30-day average negative value but a comprehensive net inflow. Is the market bottom confirmed or just a false alarm?

Glassnode’s latest data shows that the 30-day net inflow moving average for Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs remains in negative territory, but the timing of this conclusion is quite interesting—just yesterday, December 31, US BTC and ETH spot ETFs experienced a “full bloom” of capital inflows, with none of the 12 BTC ETFs experiencing net outflows, and all 9 ETH ETFs achieving net inflows. This temporal contradiction precisely reflects the subtle shift the market is undergoing.

30-Day Average Negative, but Single-Day Full Net Inflows: How to Understand This Contradiction

The true meaning behind the data

A 30-day moving average in negative territory indicates that the overall trend over the past month has been net capital outflow. According to relevant information, US Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs previously experienced eight consecutive weeks of net outflows, entering a phase of stock competition. But yesterday’s full net inflow broke this negative cycle—what does this imply?

The most straightforward interpretation is: market sentiment is bottoming out and rebounding. The negative 30-day average is the result of the past month’s accumulation, but recent data has started to turn positive, gradually raising the entire 30-day average. In other words, we may be in a transition phase from “extreme caution” to “gradual recovery.”

The comprehensiveness of capital inflows is very important

Yesterday’s net inflow is not just about flagship products. According to data, besides leading products like BlackRock IBIT, Ark & 21Shares ARKB, small and medium-sized products such as Bitwise BITB, VanEck HODL, and Grayscale BTC achieved net inflows of $13.87 million, $4.98 million, and $4.28 million respectively. In the ETH ETF market, other small and medium-sized products also experienced capital inflows.

This comprehensiveness is crucial because it indicates that the capital inflow is not just short-term speculation on a single product, but a full-scale market confidence recovery in crypto ETFs.

On-Chain Data Tells Another Story

Whales Have Never Left

Although ETF data shows an overall negative trend over the past month, on-chain data provides a different signal. Glassnode data indicates that whales holding 1,000–10,000 BTC continued to accumulate in December, with an accumulation trend score approaching 1. These large holders see the $80,000 range as a low point opportunity and keep absorbing chips.

This means that the truly smart money has never truly left; they are just waiting for the right opportunity. While retail investors sell out in fear, whales quietly build positions.

Exchange Outflows Are Increasing

According to the latest data, Bitcoin outflows from exchanges are increasing, indicating that more coins are being withdrawn and stored rather than sold off. This complements the phased capital inflow into ETFs: on one hand, institutions are re-entering via ETFs, and on the other hand, on-chain holders are strengthening their defenses.

What Do Market Sentiment Indicators Say?

Currently, the fear index has been in “extreme fear” for 14 consecutive days, but historical experience tells us that extreme fear often marks a bottom. The negative 30-day ETF data is a quantification of this fear, but when fear reaches an extreme, the opposite force begins to accumulate.

Yesterday’s full net inflow may be the initial sign of this counteracting force starting to manifest.

Summary

Glassnode’s data indeed shows that ETF capital flows have not yet indicated new demand signals, but this conclusion needs to be understood within a time frame. The negative 30-day average reflects the overall trend over the past month, while yesterday’s full net inflow suggests that this trend may be changing. Coupled with signals like continuous accumulation by on-chain whales and increasing exchange outflows, signs of a market bottom are gradually being confirmed.

The key question is whether this single-day full net inflow can be sustained. If ETF net inflows continue in the coming days, then the turning positive of the 30-day average is just around the corner, which would mark a shift in market sentiment from “extreme caution” to “gradual recovery.” Currently, Bitcoin is oscillating around $87,884, and the next focus is whether it can hold above the technical level of $88,800, as well as the continued flow of ETF capital.