Ancient giant whale's profit code: cash out every $4,000, after which ETH periodically peaks.

Aging ETH whales with costs below $400 are showing a clear profit-taking pattern. According to the latest analysis by on-chain data analyst Murphy, these long-held positions of 5 to 7 years tend to cash out massively whenever ETH price breaks through the $4000 mark between 2024 and 2025, and subsequently ETH invariably reaches a temporary peak. What is hidden behind this pattern, and what does it imply for the current market?

Profit Timeline of Ancient Positions

Currently, the average turnover cost for ETH held for 5 to 7 years is $378, meaning these holdings have already achieved over 10x returns if sold at $4000. Data shows that profit-taking by ancient whales concentrates around the following key points:

Why do peaks always occur around $4000

Several key factors contribute to this pattern:

• Psychological Price Level: $4000 is a landmark for ancient positions, representing substantial gains
• Risk Appetite: Holders of 5 to 10-year positions have already realized huge profits and prefer to lock in gains during price surges
• Market Liquidity: When prices rapidly rise to $4000, market buy-in is sufficient to facilitate large-scale cashouts
• Historical Pattern: Each phase of profit-taking after a peak reinforces this expectation

Key Market Information Currently

According to recent data, ETH is trading at $2976.87, about $1000 below $4000. More notably, these ancient whales still hold 21 million ETH, with an average cost far below the current price.

New Signal from Supply Changes

Since May 2024, after the Ethereum treasury accumulated large ETH holdings, the supply of ETH held for over 5 years has begun to decline gradually. This indicates that the truly ancient holdings are decreasing, but the remaining 21 million ETH are still significant enough to impact the market.

Implications of This Pattern for the Current Market

Data shows that the behavior of ancient positions is highly cyclical. Each profit-taking at key levels is followed by a phase of market toping, which may reflect:

• Long-term holders have deep market cycle awareness; their actions often signal a market high
• When these low-cost positions are cashed out on a large scale, the market needs to absorb this selling pressure, possibly leading to short-term corrections
• With 21 million ETH still in circulation, if prices continue rising toward $4000, new selling pressure may emerge

Future Focus Areas

Based on this pattern, key signals to monitor include:

• Whether ETH can break through and stabilize above $4000
• The scale and speed of profit-taking by ancient whales near this level
• The market correction magnitude and duration after large cashouts
• Whether the holdings of ancient ETH continue to decline

Summary

The profit pattern of ancient whales indicates that low-cost old positions face significant profit-taking pressure around $4000. This is not coincidental but a repeatedly validated cycle. While ETH is still some distance from this critical level, the data suggests that if prices continue upward, close attention should be paid to the movements of these long-term holders. Their actions often serve as important signals of market peaks.