#MacroWatchFedChairPick

As we enter the first week of 2026, global markets are laser-focused on one key decision that could shape the entire risk-asset cycle: President Trump’s upcoming Fed Chair nomination.
At the center of attention is Kevin Hassett—and for Bitcoin and crypto, the stakes couldn’t be higher.
Here’s what this nomination could mean for your portfolio and the 2026 cycle ⬇️
1️⃣ The Candidate: Who Is Kevin Hassett? 👔
Kevin Hassett is currently the frontrunner (≈44% probability on prediction markets) to replace Jerome Powell when his term ends in May 2026.
Why markets care:
🕊️ Dovish Lean: Hassett has openly stated there is “plenty of room” for rate cuts
📉 He believes lower borrowing costs are critical to powering the supply-side expansion expected in 2026
💬 His stance aligns with an easing-friendly macro backdrop
The Alternative Risk:
If Trump pivots to a more hawkish candidate like Michelle Bowman—who recently dissented against rate cuts—expect a sharp shift in expectations from “easing” to “holding higher for longer.”
2️⃣ Repricing the 2026 Rate-Cut Narrative 📉🔄
After three rate cuts in 2025, policy rates now sit around 3.5%–3.75%. Markets are split on what comes next:
🕊️ Dovish Scenario (Hassett)
Markets likely price in 2–3 additional cuts across late-2025 and 2026
USD weakens, liquidity expands
Risk assets receive a strong tailwind
🦅 Hawkish Scenario (Bowman / Waller)
Signals a “higher for longer” stance to combat sticky inflation
Markets reprice toward zero cuts in early 2026
Liquidity tightens, volatility rises