Surviving in Crypto is More Important Than Making Accurate Predictions

I entered the market in 2017. I have sat and watched charts at 3 a.m., experienced the feeling after a account burn, hands freezing cold but mind completely empty.
For a long time, I believed: as long as you predict the trend correctly, you will be rich.
Later I understood: the people who last long are not the best predictors, but those with the best discipline and rhythm.
Today, I won’t talk about high-level theories, just share what I have paid for with real money and real time.

1. Profit on the Screen Is Not Your Money
   In 2021, I once saw a position with over 40% profit. My only thought was:
   “Wait a little longer, maybe double it.”
   Two hours later, the profit shrank to 5%. In the end, because I refused to cut, I turned profit into loss.
   Since then, I have engraved one thing in my mind:
   👉 Only when closing a position does the money truly belong to you.
   My current principle is very clear:
   When profit reaches 20%, withdraw all principal—let the profit run.
   For example:
   Principal 100,000 → account rises to 120,000 → withdraw 100,000
   Remaining 20,000 is “market money”
   Even if I make more mistakes, I am not harmed at the root.

2. Cutting Losses Is Not Cowardice, It’s Self-Rescue
   Many people deceive themselves with the phrase:
   “Not selling means not losing.”
   But the crypto market doesn’t need your approval to keep falling.
   I once held a losing position, refused to cut. After being forced to exit, 15 minutes later, the price dropped another 20%.
   That’s when I realized:
   Cutting losses = chopping off your hand to survive
   Account burn = cremation without fanfare
   My ironclad rule now:
   No single position should make me lose more than 2% of my total assets.
   For example:
   Account 100,000
   Maximum loss per position: 2,000
   Hit that, exit—no negotiations.
   Keeping cash gives you the right to choose. Losing capital means losing the opportunity forever.

3. Don’t Be Stubborn with the Market – Missing Out Hurts More Than Losing
   “Sell and it goes up again” happens every day.
   The biggest mistake many make isn’t selling early, but being afraid to buy back out of shame.
   The trading mindset of experienced traders is very simple:
   “Accept mistakes, re-enter on the right rhythm.”
   I once:
   Sold ETH at 2,000
   After breaking 2,100 → bought back
   Finally, caught the entire wave up to 2,500
   The important thing isn’t the initial price, but whether you follow the trend.
   My always-used principle:
   Downtrend → rebound is a reduction of position
   Uptrend → correction is an increase of position
   Don’t obsess over “catching the bottom.” The safest is to enter after the trend is clear.

4. Leverage Is a Double-Edged Sword – Misuse Cuts You Off
   I once made quick money with leverage. It was also leverage that wiped me out in a single strong shake.
   Currently, my discipline is:
   Major coins: maximum 2x leverage
   Altcoins: no leverage
   Leverage isn’t for quick wealth,
   but to optimize capital when risks are controlled.
   When using 2x:
   Halve the position size
   Wider stop-loss
   Allow room for market fluctuations
   Survive first, profits come later.

5. Psychology Decides Outcomes More Than Analysis
   Crypto trades 24/7, if you stare at the chart all day, you’ll be controlled by K-line emotions.
   I set a fixed schedule:
   7:30 AM: check trend
   8:00 PM: review summary
   Besides that: don’t look at the price table
   Less trading, but bigger wave gains.
   A habit that changed me a lot:
   Record reasons for entering a trade
   Record results
   Review at the end of the week
   For example:
   “Sold because RSI was overbought”
   “Bought because broke resistance”
   After some time, you’ll see clearly:
   👉 Did you lose because of the market, or because of yourself?

Final Words
There are no geniuses in the crypto market, only those who survive long enough. The secret isn’t about how many times you predict correctly, but:
Lose little when wrong
Eat solidly when right
If you’ve ever doubted yourself on sleepless nights, remember:
Discipline beats luck. Rhythm is more important than prediction.
Learning is always the most profitable investment. As long as you exist, there’s still a chance.