2026-01-02 14:22:05

The four-year cycle rule of Bitcoin once regarded as a guiding principle has truly failed this time.

Looking back at the past 14 years of market trends, each halving has been like a starting gun for the market—supply pressure releases, retail enthusiasm ignites, and the price usually experiences a vigorous rally. The logic is simple: reduced supply + speculative frenzy = upward trend.

But this cycle is different. Not only did the second year after the halving not follow the traditional script, it ended with a decline. This exception is highly significant—it signals the complete end of an old era.

Where is the real change? The "remote control" of Bitcoin's market has been completely handed over. The once crucial supply-side logic now has minimal influence. Today, what dominates the price are liquidity conditions, interest rate fluctuations, institutional fund flows, and the ups and downs of the macroeconomic cycle. The halving variable has become just background noise.

What does this reflect? Bitcoin is undergoing a transformation from a purely speculative asset to a mature financial asset. As institutional inflows continue and macroeconomic influences deepen, the entire cryptocurrency market is bidding farewell to the era of retail-led, wild growth, gradually integrating into the macroeconomic cycle framework.

This is both a sign of market maturity and a complete rewriting of the rules of the game.

BTC0,89%

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ApeWithNoChain

· 9h ago

The idea that halving is failing is a bit exaggerated; the rules of the crypto world are inherently breakable. Institutional entry has indeed changed the game, but retail investors are still retail investors. Macroeconomic factors certainly play a role, but is the supply-side pressure from halving really that insignificant? Honestly, it's still about liquidity; it doesn't have much to do with whether the market is mature or not. Wait a minute, if that's the case, what's the point of halving in the future? The old rules are failing only because the source of new funds has changed, but it’s not really useless.

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GateUser-02b5f211

· 01-03 04:35

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CrashHotline

· 01-02 14:52

Honestly, the halving cycle has been failing for a while now, the era of retail investors is really over. Big institutions entering the market have directly changed the game rules, while we're still waiting for halving to rescue the market— they've already been trading macro strategies. Bitcoin is starting to look more and more like the S&P 500. Is this still the thing we believed in back then? Since we're following macro guidance, we have to read the Fed's mood— damn, this is really frustrating.

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OffchainWinner

· 01-02 14:50

Oh no, the halving pattern really failed this time. Retail investors should wake up now.

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OneBlockAtATime

· 01-02 14:49

To be honest, I've seen through the halving curse long ago. Retail investors' strategies should have been phased out by now. It's just that institutions have already harvested the gains. Who still relies on the supply side now? Integrating into the macro cycle—that's just being tamed. Bitcoin is becoming more and more boring.

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MechanicalMartel