ETH recent trend is quite interesting. The price is stuck around 3,036 dollars. Yesterday, it tested the high of 3,069 but failed to hold, and quickly dropped back down. Currently, the marked price and the current price are very close, which essentially means there is too much resistance above and no strength to break through.

From a technical perspective, all signals point in one direction: bears are in control. The SUPERTREND indicator shows a resistance level at 3,219 dollars, which is about 6 points away from the current price—seems significant. But the problem is, this resistance level has been tested multiple times recently, each time pushed down, with highs gradually decreasing—classic weak market pattern. The 4-hour chart is even more obvious, with consecutive upper shadows indicating that every rebound is being sniped, and the bulls have no say.

Volume is also not optimistic. The 5-period moving average has dropped from 2.73 million to 2.04 million, with trading volume shrinking and participation declining. In this situation, a rebound without volume support is dangerous.

On the macro front, conditions are indeed unfavorable. Recently, risk appetite has been shrinking, liquidity expectations are tightening, and high-volatility assets like ETH are under pressure first. On-chain data shows large holders are reducing their positions on rallies, which is quite clear. The ecosystem also has no new stories to tell; major applications or significant upgrades are absent, making the narrative somewhat weak.

From a trading perspective, the 3,050 to 3,070 range can be used to gradually enter short positions, with a stop-loss set at 3,220—if that level is not broken. The logic for shorting is that the rebound lacks momentum, and the trend has already peaked.