Are institutions entering en masse or is it the night before the bubble? How should Bitcoin investors choose in 2026?

【CryptoPunk】Regarding this year’s market trend, there is an interesting phenomenon worth noting: short-term traders and long-term investors are facing completely different situations.

Institutional researchers recently proposed an angle — viewing the buying trends of various countries in Bitcoin through game theory. The logic is as follows: once a country includes Bitcoin in its foreign exchange reserves, other countries will feel the pressure. This “arms race” style competition could drive up Bitcoin demand, and from the supply and demand economics perspective, increased demand naturally pushes prices higher. But there is a key premise here: it depends on how much incremental demand there is, and whether other holders are selling or holding.

Massive corporate purchases of crypto assets have indeed stimulated market demand, providing a boost to prices. However, risks are also evident — if these companies are forced to sell during a bear market, it could instead drive down the prices of Bitcoin and other assets.

Regarding the classic four-year cycle theory, it has not completely failed because the human factors driving the cycle (fear and greed) have always been present. The current price decline could signal the start of a new bear market, or it could just be a fluctuation within a bull market. The truth will only be revealed by the end of 2026.

What is more worth paying attention to is that the crypto market is entering a new era. More and more new types and levels of investors are entering, especially traditional asset management and institutional investors. They have already started buying Bitcoin, but the scale of funds used to position in this field — we may only be seeing the tip of the iceberg.