2026-01-02 16:22:35

In 2026, the market kicked off with a big show—the Federal Reserve's dot plot will determine the upcoming market direction. Honestly, the current performance of Bitcoin and Ethereum entirely depends on whether liquidity expectations can be fulfilled.

From the data, the Federal Reserve is now holding interest rates firmly above 3.5%. The 25 basis point rate cut last year seems more like a gesture, with inflation data stuck at 2.4% and GDP actually surging to 2.3%. With these figures in front of us, the anticipated massive liquidity injection is basically off the table.

Inside Wall Street, divisions have already emerged. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are aggressive, betting on consecutive rate cuts in March and June; JPMorgan Chase, on the other hand, is much more conservative, expecting only one cut this year; there are even more extreme voices calling for "zero rate cuts" or a "150 basis point plunge," presenting opposing scenarios.

The biggest uncertainty is that Powell might leave office in May. If the new leader is dovish Haskett, the game could change entirely. So, this January's FOMC meeting, to some extent, concerns the liquidity landscape for all of 2026.

How to respond? First, don’t rush into full positions; wait until the dot plot is released and market sentiment has settled. Second, keep an eye on expectation gaps—whether inflation data is declining and employment data is worsening—as these will determine market confidence in the "slow rate cuts" narrative. Third, sector selection: small-cap tokens with underlying liquidity might have opportunities, ecosystem tokens could outperform the broader market, and narrative-driven sector tokens are bets for extreme gains.

My own approach is this: if there's a significant pullback, buy the dip in Bitcoin and Ethereum as safe-haven assets; during rebounds, focus on strong public chain ecosystems; keep 5% of your capital to chase new concepts and stories. History shows that the greatest opportunities often emerge amid divergence and uncertainty. After the dot plot is released, the market's first reaction is usually the most intense. If you can accurately interpret signals at that moment, the profit potential can be substantial.

What’s your take? Do you think there will be a rate cut in March? What is your current position allocation? Share your thoughts, and let’s see how this storm unfolds together.

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SerumSqueezer

· 01-05 12:11

Powell's resignation in May is really the ultimate variable; Haskett taking over directly changes the game rules. Let's wait for the candlestick chart, no need to rush. Planning to buy the dip, but first see how much the market sentiment is killed. The level of tearing on Wall Street feels unpredictable. Small coins do have a chance this time, and ecosystem tokens are also tempting. I still prefer to stay steady; holding BTC as the core reserve is the safest. The expectation of interest rate cuts has always been just air; don't wait foolishly. I'm just worried that the expectation gap will collapse, and that's the real kill.

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BearMarketBro

· 01-04 22:20

It's really hard to place bets before the candlestick chart appears; Wall Street folks are all saying different things. The real game-changer is Powell possibly stepping down in May; switching to a dovish stance could reverse the entire situation. What does 25 basis points mean, haha? We've seen it coming a long time ago. Honestly, it's more reliable to wait until the emotional sell-off is over before entering the market. Right now, everyone with a full position is just a gambler. The small coin ecosystem is definitely worth watching closely; just worried about missing the rebound opportunity. Chasing the new narrative with 5% ammunition is a bit aggressive; I prefer to be more conservative.

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BearMarketNoodler

· 01-02 16:51

25 basis points really is an insult to our intelligence, and inflation is still stuck at 2.4%. Why cut interest rates? That's too naive. Powell might leave in May? Then this dot plot truly marks the watershed of the year. I agree with the logic that Haskett's rise changes the game rules. Don't rush to full positions; that's very on point. If the market sentiment isn't fully killed, acting now is just asking for trouble. Let's wait and see the first wave of reactions. Currently, only Bitcoin is being used as a safe haven; all other small tokens are just gambling. The 5% ammunition to chase new narratives is indeed ruthless, betting on that超预期 moment. The internal rift on Wall Street is so severe, indicating that everyone is uncertain. At this point, it's actually an opportunity—just see who reads the signals more accurately.

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WealthCoffee

· 01-02 16:51

Powell's resignation in May is such a surprise; I need to wait until the dot plot to see what's next.

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MetaverseVagrant

· 01-02 16:46

The news of Powell stepping down in May is, in my opinion, the real black swan event. Wall Street folks are just backstabbing each other every day; I'll wait until the dot plot comes out before commenting. A rate cut in March? Dream on. Let's see the inflation data. I'm just lying here, waiting for the market to finish killing off the sentiment before I get in. The turnaround for small-cap coins is just in the next one or two weeks; missing it would be a shame.

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