Last night, I reviewed the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes, and I immediately deleted the previous interest rate cut plan I had organized. These minutes are less of a policy summary and more of a silent blow to the entire market's expectations. For those still hoping for a new round of rate cuts in January to boost mainstream cryptocurrencies, it's time to calm down. If you rashly increase your holdings now, you might easily become one of the first "position takers" in the new year.

As a veteran who has been tracking the Fed's movements for eight years, I can responsibly say that the signals revealed in these minutes are already quite clear: the probability of a rate cut in January is extremely low. Some might argue, "Didn't they just cut 25 basis points in December? Why is there no expectation now?" The details here are worth a deep dive.

The key is to understand what that December rate cut actually signified. From the meeting records, it’s clear that this was not a sign of the Fed softening its policy stance; rather, it appears to be a forced concession. Many officials who supported the rate cut initially were actually opposed to it, and their final agreement was mainly to hedge against potential deterioration in the employment market — a typical risk hedge rather than a change in attitude. An everyday analogy would be: you don’t want to lend money to a friend, worried they might not pay you back, but out of politeness, you lend some anyway, while secretly thinking about how to get your money back quickly. The Fed’s logic this time is similar; it’s not genuinely trying to inject liquidity into the market.

The most dangerous signal for the crypto market is that the Fed is thoroughly breaking the dream that "inflation will automatically fall back." The reason for the December compromise on rate cuts was partly due to officials still holding onto the hope that inflation could self-correct.