2026-01-02 18:23:37

Recently, a new project in the overseas community has gained quite a bit of attention. It adopts a 4-month structured phased presale model. From a design perspective, this scheme aims to strike a balance for early investors between locking in long-term positions and reducing the pressure of concentrated sell-offs—tokens are gradually unlocked month by month. Compared to those one-time release presales, this approach is indeed much more moderate.

Some analysts even suggest that this might be a good current choice for crypto presales, mainly because of this time management design. It does sound interesting, but reality is often more complicated.

Let's start with a few issues that must be acknowledged. The presale track itself is a high-risk territory; historical data shows that about 90% of presale projects eventually go to zero, and this is not alarmist. Secondly, predicting when the next wave of altcoins will come and how strong it will be is anyone’s guess—sometimes it may be delayed, and sometimes the momentum may not be ideal. Additionally, now the Layer2 and meme coin sectors are becoming very crowded, with new projects flooding in, making competition fierce.

While phased unlocking can alleviate supply shocks, it doesn't change the fundamental success or failure logic of the project itself. For entering such presales, the key is to recognize your own risk tolerance and not be blinded by the expected phased release mechanism.

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GasWrangler

· 8h ago

nah honestly the vesting schedule is just cosmetic—if you analyze the data, 90% of these presales still go to zero regardless of how they drip tokens lol. people get distracted by the "structured release" marketing but fundamentally the project either has utility or it doesn't, technically speaking

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OnchainDetectiveBing

· 8h ago

A 90% zeroing rate is already scary enough, and monthly unlocks are just psychological comfort. No matter how attractive the selling points are, the project will die just as quickly. Basically, it's just a different way to cut leeks; extending the timeline actually increases the risk. The staged release plan seems to be designed to make you hold on for a few more months watching it zero out. Layer2 and meme coin tracks are now too competitive; new projects hardly have a chance to stand out, so why get involved in this muddy water? Gambler's mentality is at play, just hoping to survive month by month. Early investors' logic sounds like survivor bias; most people have already given up.

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tokenomics_truther

· 9h ago

90% zeroing-out rate, this is the real truth. Don't be fooled by sweet talk about installment unlocking. --- Monthly release sounds good, but if the project is bad, it still zeroes out. It's just a different way to lose money. --- Now the pre-sale track is all copy-paste. Unless there's a real user base, it's just gambling on the next market cycle. --- Everyone says this model is good, which makes me even more cautious. It indicates that the sellers are after this consensus trap. --- Unlocking in stages can save the project? That's illogical. It's just delaying the sell-off time. --- Layer2 and memes are everywhere. Why can this new project break through? I really don't understand why people are still flocking to it. --- Once you see through it, installment plans just prevent you from losing everything at once, making you feel better mentally. --- I just want to know who calculated the 4-month unlock cycle. It feels very arbitrary. --- For pre-sales, with the zeroing-out rate standing there, no mechanism design can change the fate. --- When will the altcoin market come? Bro, isn't this just the essence of gambling? No one can predict it.

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