2026-01-02 18:27:14

Predictive markets are inherently not suitable for evaluation using the standard of capital efficiency. Insisting on comparing them to the leverage efficiency of perpetual contracts is indeed a false proposition. The design logic and operational mechanisms of the two types of products are completely different, and judging them from a single dimension can easily lead to biased conclusions.

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

16 Likes

Reward
16
9
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

BlockchainRetirementHome

· 01-05 18:25

That's right. These people insist on comparing prediction markets with leveraged products, which is really nonsense. One is an information game, and the other is a capital game. Why insist on applying the same standard to both?

View OriginalReply0

NotGonnaMakeIt

· 01-04 14:52

That's right, comparing these two is just nonsense. The prediction market and perpetual contracts are two different things. Trying to evaluate them using the same standard is actually funny.

View OriginalReply0

FUDwatcher

· 01-04 11:57

Haha, you're right. Using the same standards for perpetual contracts to predict the market is a trap; they're completely different things, yet people insist on measuring with the same ruler... These folks really know how to mess around.

View OriginalReply0

GhostInTheChain

· 01-04 03:17

Exactly right, this framework is problematic. Forcing prediction markets to fit into contracts is simply forcing a square peg into a round hole.

View OriginalReply0

CryptoMotivator

· 01-02 18:57

That's right. Some people insist on comparing apples and oranges and then conclude that oranges are not good enough. The logic of prediction markets is not originally designed for high leverage, and rigidly applying capital efficiency standards is just absurd.

View OriginalReply0

TokenUnlocker

· 01-02 18:48

That's right, using a single ruler to measure everything has long been outdated. Prediction markets and leveraged products are fundamentally two different species; trying to force the concept of capital efficiency onto both is just funny.

View OriginalReply0

GweiWatcher

· 01-02 18:46

You're right, these two are not the same at all. Forcing them to follow the same standard is really like Guan Gong fighting Qin Qiong.

View OriginalReply0

HodlKumamon

· 01-02 18:36

Yeah, yeah, yeah, comparing prediction markets and perpetual contracts in terms of efficiency is really cheating; it's not even on the same level...

View OriginalReply0

MoneyBurnerSociety

· 01-02 18:33

Hmm... You're right. I previously tried to apply the perpetual contract approach to prediction markets, and I ended up shooting myself in the foot.