#美联储流动性政策 The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in January has reached 75.6%, and this data point is quite significant. From a liquidity perspective, the market is pricing in a relatively stable policy expectation—there is less room for rate cuts in the short term, but there is still a 44.4% chance of a cumulative 25bp decrease by March.

What does this mean? The certainty of liquidity conditions is increasing. I have been tracking recent movements of whale wallets and found that large holders are beginning to adjust their positions in the context of clarified liquidity policies—some institutions are gradually building positions rather than taking aggressive actions.

The key is whether the on-chain fund flows before and after the January meeting can maintain this pace. If rate cut expectations continue to be pushed back, risk assets may face pressure, and large transfers on the chain and inflows into exchanges will provide clearer signals. Currently, we are still in the observation phase, and the data has not yet provided a definitive directional breakthrough.