2026-01-03 12:24:45

New Year's Day holiday Hong Kong stocks performed brilliantly, with the Hang Seng Index soaring 2.76% and the Hang Seng Tech Index jumping as much as 4%. The three major sectors of chips, AI, and finance took turns to rally, with SMIC's Hong Kong stock price increasing by over 5%. The newly listed GPU stocks made a stunning debut. For the A-share market, this wave of Hong Kong stock行情 is actually a "sample" or a preview.

Next Monday's opening is almost certain to be "red," but whether it can truly break through the 4000-point mark and sustain a continuous rally depends on these key signals.

**Continued strength of Hong Kong stocks is the first threshold**

Don't be fooled by the high probability of A-shares opening higher next Monday; the core still depends on Hong Kong stocks' relay. Once Hong Kong stocks weaken, the sustainability of the subsequent A-share rally will immediately be compromised, easily turning into a quick rise and fall pattern. According to historical data, when Hong Kong stocks increase by more than 2%, the probability of A-shares rising on the first day after the holiday can reach 78%. Coupled with the good performance of the A50 index during the holiday, a high open is basically a given.

**The opening position is very important**

Here's a point to note: a high open below 4000 points is actually more stable. If there is an expectation of breaking through 4000 during the session but it doesn't happen immediately, the selling pressure will be relatively mild, which is also conducive to a good start. Conversely, if the market opens directly above 4000 points, profit-taking may quickly intensify, increasing selling pressure and potentially disrupting the rhythm.

**Whether technology + finance can resonate is the most critical**

The current leading sectors in Hong Kong stocks are mainly chips, semiconductors, and insurance, which are heavyweight stocks. Correspondingly, in A-shares, these are the technology and financial sectors. Whether these two sectors can work together directly affects the difficulty of breaking through 4000 points. SMIC has a high probability of catching up, and the story of domestic substitution is still ongoing. The surge of new GPU stocks in Hong Kong continues to fuel the heat around AI hardware, and themes like AI applications and commercial aerospace have room for follow-up.

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LootboxPhobia

· 19h ago

The recent rally in Hong Kong stocks has indeed boosted some confidence, but to be honest, crossing the 4000-point hurdle is really tough. AI chips are on the rise again, and SMIC still has plenty of room for continued gains. The question is whether the technology and finance sectors can truly work well together. It's quite interesting that opening higher and getting stuck below 4000 points is actually more stable; breaking below that level might make it easier to be knocked down. Next week, whether we can hold onto this momentum in Hong Kong stocks depends on whether the technology and finance sectors have the strength. The new GPU stocks are rising so rapidly; whether A-shares can keep up is the real question.

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MechanicalMartel

· 01-05 21:28

The Hong Kong stocks are indeed paving the way for the A-shares, but I still think we shouldn't be too fixated on the 4000-point level. The key is whether the technology and finance sectors can truly work together.

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DataOnlooker

· 01-05 15:44

The recent surge in Hong Kong stocks is indeed quite strong, but the logic that staying steady below 4000 after a high open is worth pondering—I find it a bit counterintuitive. The real test is whether the technology and financial sectors can resonate together. Whether domestic replacement concepts like SMIC can hold up will depend on the next few trading days.

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StealthDeployer

· 01-04 13:34

This wave of Hong Kong stocks rising and A-shares falling next week must indeed follow, but the key is how long Hong Kong stocks can hold up. Once they slip, it's over.

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Hash_Bandit

· 01-03 12:50

nah this feels like watching difficulty adjustment all over again... hong kong pumping hard but a-shares gotta actually hold the hashrate or it's just another false breakout. seen this plot too many times lol

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BoredStaker

· 01-03 12:38

Hong Kong stocks are really on a roll this time; let's see if the A-shares can catch up next week. --- The 4000-point mark still feels like a hurdle; opening too high might be risky. --- SMIC's surge is so strong; tech stocks are really looking promising. --- Don't just look at the gap-up; the key is how long Hong Kong stocks can hold up. --- Financial + tech combined to break through; this combo is indeed fierce. --- I just want to laugh at the GPU new stock's rapid rise; can this heat last? --- Is it more stable to open below 4000? I kind of understand this logic. --- The biggest concern is if Hong Kong stocks falter; then the A-shares are pointless. --- The story of domestic substitution is still ongoing; SMIC indeed has potential. --- The heat around AI hardware, it seems like it can be hot for a while longer.

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ChainWatcher

· 01-03 12:32

Hong Kong stocks have indeed been fierce this time, but I'm just worried that the A-shares will open red and then fizzle out in the afternoon, and we'll have to wait for the next opportunity. --- The 4000-point level feels like a psychological barrier; whether it can be broken or is just a false alarm depends entirely on whether the technology and finance sectors can rally together. --- SMIC's rapid rise suggests that the A-share chip sector next week won't be able to escape, but I just don't know if it will become the next group of retail investors getting caught. --- Is it more stable to open above 4000? That logic is a bit extreme; the market really cares about positioning like that. --- The new GPU stock making a stunning debut feels a bit overhyped; let's wait and see. --- This time, the Hong Kong stocks' relay race is basically about whether the finance and technology sectors can pick up momentum, or else it's just another show of false bravado.

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RugPullProphet

· 01-03 12:32

Hong Kong stocks are once again setting an example for A-shares. It seems unlikely to avoid a "good start" next Monday, but it still feels a bit difficult to break through the 4000-point mark.

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OldLeekConfession

· 01-03 12:25

The recent rally in Hong Kong stocks is pretty good, but we need to see if the A-shares can really hold on. The 4000-point mark is right there, and it feels like we might be heading into a tense moment again. To be honest, there are some real developments in chips and AI. SMIC has already risen over 5%, so I guess the A-shares will need to catch up as well. However, I'm still a bit worried—if it opens high, it might crash easily. There are too many lessons from history. If Hong Kong stocks don't continue to perform well, that "opening red" in A-shares might turn into an "opening crash." Let's just wait and see.

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