#美联储降息 The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates is 98% and has been essentially confirmed. This signal is more worth paying attention to than surface-level numbers. With a $12 trillion US debt holding in place, once Japan's benchmark interest rate rises to 0.75%, hitting a 30-year high, the attractiveness of capital flowing back to Japan will significantly increase. This directly impacts the trend of US Treasury yields, and the premise for the Fed to cut rates relies on the decline in yields to stabilize financial asset prices.

From an on-chain perspective, recent whale wallet accumulation of stablecoins is under continuous monitoring—if US Treasury yields rebound, the selling pressure on risk assets will quickly manifest on-chain, with large holders often fleeing 3-5 trading days before market consensus. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the frequency of large transfers of ETH and BTC to exchanges, as these are often leading indicators of institutional adjustments to macro expectations. Whether the Fed can maintain its rate cut pace depends on whether US Treasury yields stabilize. If Japan continues this step, the subsequent liquidity expectations for US stocks and the crypto market will need to be reassessed.