2026-01-03 13:23:29

Recent market fluctuations seem on the surface to be about interest rate cuts, but the real issue is rooted in policy interpretation. In the early morning speech, the Federal Reserve Chair clearly signaled a "preemptive adjustment" and also emphasized data lags, implying that there may be no change in December. Just a few words, and it instantly shattered the market’s previous expectations of continuous easing.

In fact, the market had already digested the October rate cut, and throughout November, traders were betting on a second round of easing at the end of the year. Everyone was expecting a wave of anticipation, but the policy side stubbornly refused to budge and instead continued to signal a hawkish tone. This 180-degree turn immediately triggered emotional reactions, and the price weakness became inevitable.

A calm analysis suggests that it’s not yet necessary to panic. From a technical perspective, the region around 105,000 to 106,000 still has clear support. As long as this line holds, once market sentiment fully digests the news, there is still room for a rebound. Don’t forget, Trump’s side is still applying pressure, and the policy game in December will likely play out again, making a straight downward move unlikely.

But one signal is more worth paying attention to than anything else—the ETF capital flow. This has become almost an amplifier of market sentiment. Once institutions sense macro issues, their retreat can be shockingly fast. Yesterday’s net outflow approached five billion, hitting a two-week low. Such data often reflect the real movement of large funds better than traditional technical indicators and should be a key focus for daily review.

In short, short-term panic should not be overreacted to. The market always swings between expectations and reality. The lesson this time is—when listening to central bank policies, don’t just look at actions, but also pay attention to subtle differences in tone and wording. Stay calm and avoid making decisions like cutting losses at the emotional bottom.

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Degentleman

· 01-06 04:38

It's the Federal Reserve's usual trick again; just listening to their wording can blow up the market. Holding the 10.5K to 10.6K range really depends on the institutions' stance this time. The 500 million net outflow from the ETF is the real heartbreak—much more honest than a candlestick chart. The policy game isn't over yet; don't rush to cut losses and give away your kindness. The tone is all hawkish, no wonder the market turned around 180 degrees directly.

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MemeCurator

· 01-05 17:37

Once again, policies hinting at a crackdown on retail investors, institutions are really done for. ETF with five hundred million net outflow—this data is terrifying, the big players are fleeing. Just hold on to 10.5, don’t think about soaring to the sky—that’s not a good idea. The lesson from this wave is: the wording from the central bank is more valuable than whether they cut or not. Trump is still causing trouble; there’s still hope in December, don’t surrender now.

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BlockchainFries

· 01-05 11:33

Once again, expectations were cut by policy rhetoric. This wave was too intense. No action from policies but signaling a hawkish stance; the market indeed should stay calm. There is still hope in December, but judging by the current ETF net flow trend, institutions are really fleeing. This time, it’s a lesson for the market—listening to policies requires paying attention to the underlying tone.

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MetaverseHomeless

· 01-03 13:53

Another day killed by rumors, the Federal Reserve really knows how to play word games. --- Support levels are well explained, but I still think the ETF outflow of 500 million is a bit scary. --- Listening to the tone? Bro, I can't even understand English, I rely on reporters for interpretation, and that's the end of it. --- Trump, the troublemaker, will definitely make December another big show. Waiting for the reversal. --- People cutting losses are probably crying right now. I'm just holding firm at 10.6. --- The market played out badly as expected. The lesson learned this time is quite deep; next time, we need to be more cautious. --- Institutions are flowing out so quickly; when will retail investors be able to react? --- Basically, it was a misjudgment of the rhythm. Not the policy's fault, just overthinking.

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AirdropBlackHole

· 01-03 13:52

Another act of "Obedience and Listening," the Federal Reserve's game of rhetoric is really skillful. Getting cut is deserved; after all, everyone insisted on betting on continuous easing. If the 105,000 can't hold, then it's truly panic time. The net outflow of five hundred million from ETFs is the real punch to the gut; big institutions have already seen through it. This round, I finally understand that the central bank's statements are more deadly than the actions themselves. There's no need to cut losses and run now; there are still opportunities at the end of the year. The market always cycles between deception and being deceived; this time, it was another trap. Let's wait and see what Trump does; there will definitely be a turnaround in December. There are still bottom lines in the technicals; just don't get driven by emotions.

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ChainChef

· 01-03 13:52

yo the fed really just seasoned this market with pure hawk sauce and nobody saw it coming lmaooo

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RektRecorder

· 01-03 13:50

It's all just套路, full of hawkish remarks inside and out. The market was still hoping for easing, but it got slapped in the face. The ETF net outflow of 500 million is really heartbreaking; institutions are fleeing faster than anyone. Can the 10.5 to 10.6 line really hold? Feels like a悬啊. Policy interpretation is something I’ve learned; listening to speeches requires catching the underlying tone, which is more important than just looking at the data. This 180-degree turn has really崩了 my mindset. Maybe I should wait until the emotions settle before talking.

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ProtocolRebel

· 01-03 13:35

It's the same old story, listening to what they say is more important than watching what they do. When the hawks make a move, a full collapse is expected. The market has indeed been taught a lesson in reverse this time. If 105,000 can't hold, it will be really embarrassing. By then, there will probably be a long line of people cutting losses. The outflow of ETFs is so fierce that institutions have long sensed something is wrong. We retail investors are always a step behind. Trump is exerting pressure on his side. It feels like there is still hope in December, but now anything said is pointless. Just remember one thing—don't make decisions at the bottom. It's a bloody lesson. That speech in the early morning was truly amazing; a few words directly changed the situation. Holding the support level is still a way out; breaking it would mean we need to reconsider our strategy. Emotions are much scarier than technical analysis. Just look at the ETF net outflows to understand.

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StablecoinEnjoyer

· 01-03 13:25

Once again, the hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve caused a stir, and this time the underlying implications are even more painful. The big institutional players escaped like crazy yesterday, with a net outflow of 500 million. I was stunned. If we can't hold from October 5 to October 6, it's all over, but I feel like we can still hold on a bit longer. Honestly, looking at actions alone isn't enough; we need to listen to how they phrase things. The details are full of traps. Trump is still causing trouble. There will definitely be another round in December, so don't cut recklessly.

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